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fxus64 kshv 160234 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
930 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Discussion... 


Front continues to make slow progress east across County Warning Area...with a band 
of showers and isolated thunderstorms along and behind the boundary. 
Convective activity ahead of front remains isolated. Rainfall amounts 
have been generally less than one inch. However...a few locations 
have picked up more than two inches...in the Tyler and Jacksonville 
areas. Front should be east of the County Warning Area by midday Thursday...with 
rain ending all areas but southeast zones. Clouds may be slower to 
exit. Current forecast still on track...although hourly temperatures not 
falling as fast as gridded forecast suggest. Low temperature forecast looks 
OK...so will not make any changes. Probability of precipitation may be a little high in the 
fringe areas of the County Warning Area...but as rainfall spreads east...other areas 
will receive rain. No update at this time. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Old front had nudged southeast to near a deq...to ggg...to jso...to S of a 
cll line as of 1z. 70 mile wide area of rain with embedded 
convection continues to drift slowly east-northeast along the front...with the 
front/rain showers expected to reach a llq...to reason...to dri line around 12z 
Thursday. Low MVFR ceilings currently exist within the rain showers area along 
the front...with VFR ceilings ahead of the front expected to lower 
significantly to low MVFR/IFR with the approach of the front. More 
organized rain showers with embedded convection may eventually shift NE into 
SW Arkansas after 6z...as associated shortwave trough axis lifts NE into 
the middle MS valley. However...broken areas of -ra should persist along 
the frontal zone across SW Arkansas/north la/extreme eastern Texas after 12z...with 
-ra diminishing from west to east after 18z. IFR ceilings will slowly improve 
to MVFR after 18z across NE Texas/southeast OK/adjacent SW Arkansas...with IFR ceilings 
expected to persist through the end of the taf period across north la. 
Lt/vrb winds in vc of the front will become north-northwest 5-10kts with the 
frontal passage tonight/Thursday morning. /15/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 64 70 57 71 49 / 90 50 20 20 0 
mlu 66 71 56 72 49 / 70 70 40 20 0 
deq 60 71 47 78 42 / 70 0 0 0 0 
txk 61 69 52 75 49 / 100 30 20 0 0 
eld 63 70 52 72 48 / 90 50 20 20 0 
tyr 59 69 56 74 51 / 80 30 20 20 0 
ggg 61 69 55 73 48 / 100 50 20 20 0 
lfk 66 72 60 74 50 / 80 50 20 20 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/15