195 
fxus64 khgx 051120 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
620 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 


Update for the aviation and marine discussions. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Good confidence in the overall aviation forecast package... 
although there is some concern for the timing of events for iah 
south to gls. 


A bit of drier air was evident on water vapor this morning across 
the northern and central counties. In contrast...radar has shown 
scattered areas of light rain or showers occurring the past few 
hours mainly south of I-10 and east of I-45. This activity was 
also extended south into the Gulf. Given how the activity 
yesterday correlated well with the NAM time sections...will keep 
the best rain chances from the big airports south for mainly this 
afternoon. Exceptions will be for gls where the showers should end 
by midday. 


40 


&& 


Marine... 
not much change in the marine forecast over the next few days. 
Higher winds and seas can be expected in any strong storms that 
develop today. 


40 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Discussion... 


00z 850 mb analysis shows best moisture confined to south Texas 
with a weak trough crossing extreme northeast Texas. At 250 mb...a 
strong upper level ridge was located over the southwest U.S. With 
a weakness noted between drt and crp. Upper level winds are 
convergent over southeast Texas. Precipitable waters are not as healthy as 
yesterday and forecast soundings indicate that convective temperatures 
will need to be in the middle/upper 80s before convection will fire. 
The soundings now show an inverted v signature which is a 
departure from yesterday so gusty winds will be possible with the 
stronger storms. GOES dpi precipitable water shows some drier air working into 
the northern half of the region this morning. Southeast Texas will also be 
in a left rear quadrant this afternoon and some concern that 
subsidence from this feature will limit rain chances. Will carry 
chance probability of precipitation today for the southern zones and slight chance over 
the extreme north in the drier air. Not much change for Sunday as 
precipitable waters remain 1.6-1.7 inches and convective temperatures are in the middle 
80s. A general weakness remains over Texas through the first half 
of next week so will carry chance probability of precipitation but confidence not terribly 
high. An upper level ridge will build into Texas from the east 
later in the week. Heights will build and warmer temperatures and drier 
conditions are expected to return for the end of next week. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 94 73 93 74 94 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Houston (iah) 93 73 93 73 93 / 40 20 30 20 30 
Galveston (gls) 85 78 88 80 89 / 40 30 30 20 30 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...43 
aviation/marine...40