918 
fxus64 kewx 201140 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
640 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Aviation... 
little change in the weather across S central Texas as a weak upper 
level low near kdrt continued to drift westward with the upper 
ridge building back into the area. Isolated airmass rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are 
possible this afternoon with heating...however any convection is 
not likely to affect and S central taf sites. Again patchy MVFR 
have developed in the overnight hours and will quickly burn off by 
around 15z with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon and through 
06z tonight. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
early this morning the infrared/WV satellite loop depicted the upper level 
low centered over the Edwards Plateau drifting northward. 00z soundings 
at drt and crp had precipitable waters  at or below 1.5 inches however still cannot rule out 
isolated convection late this afternoon south and east of the I-35 
corridor. Afternoon high temperatures today will be within a degree or 
two of what occurred on Saturday. 


Monday the upper ridge strengthens some across our County warning forecast area which should 
inhibit convection and allow afternoon highs to be a tad warmer than 
what is forecast for today. Above normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday 
due to subsidence in advance of the tropical wave. 


A strong tropical wave is currently located over the western Caribbean 
Sea moving west northwest. TPC states that this system will strengthen 
over the next two days and will likely be our next named storms...which 
would be Dolly. The majority of the models bring the center of this 
system ashore around Brownsville on Wednesday. Tropical moisture 
associated with this system is expected to overspread our County warning forecast area beginning 
on Wednesday with the highest probability of precipitation forecast for Thursday. Rain chances 
will continue into Friday and Saturday due to lingering tropical 
moisture. Extensive cloud cover and precipitation will result in 
afternoon temperatures Wednesday and Thursday to be below seasonal norms. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 100 74 101 74 99 / - - - - - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 98 71 100 71 98 / - - - - - 
del Rio International Airport 97 75 98 75 99 / - - - 0 0 
San Antonio International Airport 97 74 98 74 98 / - - - - 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


13/01