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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1120 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Aviation... 
1120 PM 


VFR through the period with few to scattered high clouds tonight and 
few to scattered cumulus Saturday. A south wind will prevail between 8 
and 12 knots. 


Expect isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms Saturday but 
coverage of storms will be too limited to mention in this taf 
package. 


79... 
&& 




Update... 
940 PM CDT 


Diurnally driven thunderstorms dissipating with the loss of 
daytime heating. Have removed probability of precipitation from evening period. No major 
changes otherwise. Some lingering cloudiness overnight...from 
dissipated thunderstorms...and in southern zones from disturbance 
in south Texas. Previous low temperature grid on track...but made minor 
changes to temperature trends overnight where rain and outflow have had 
greatest impact. 25 


&& 


Aviation... 
750 PM CDT 


The thunderstorm outflow that was moving toward dfw is slowing 
down and will most likely not make it to dfw...Dal...and afw. The 
cells that had formed on the outflow just northeast of dfw have 
also dissipated. Will send out an amendment to remove the 
temporary wind shift. No other changes necessary. 


79... 


&& 


Aviation... 
620 PM CDT 


VFR through the period with only few to scattered middle level clouds 
this evening and few to scattered cumulus Saturday. 


There may be a brief wind shift at dfw and Dal in the next hour with 
the passage of a thunderstorm outflow. This wind shift should be 
brief and the wind should return to the south/southeast between 01 
and 02z. Don't expect impacts from thunderstorms at any of the taf 
sites as most activity should dissipate before 02z. 


79... 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
205 PM CDT 


Two separate features to affect North Texas weather for the festivities 
and fire works tonight to an extent. Scattered showers/thunderstorms 
with locally heavy rainfall continue to form within deeper 
moisture plume east of upper ridge axis and in vicinity of diffuse 
boundary near the Red River valley. Meanwhile... northern extent of Texas 
coastal tropical wave to result in widely scattered showers/storms 
across the Brazos Valley of southeastern North Texas... along and southeast of a Waco to 
Palestine line through sunset. We think most firework shows will 
go on without a hitch...but folks will need to keep an eye to the 
sky through sunset for any rogue storms. 


Old boundary near the Red River should mix northward later tonight and Monday... 
as nocturnal southerly low level jet Cranks up with pressure falls occurring along 
the Lee of The Rockies...in response to and in advance of shortwave 
disturbance moving east across the northern rockies and toward the northern 
plains states. Upper ridge to our west will expand briefly back over 
North Texas Sunday/Monday...but will weaken again later in the week. 


Models all over the place on synoptic forecasts and solutions...so 
we'll lean with the typical diurnal trend for widely scattered 
showers/storms over southeast counties...as northern periphery of western Gulf 
disturbance and associated deep moisture/south-southeasterly winds keep the 
potential going down that way. Everyone else should continue hot and 
humid...as main stream of systems and their track remain well to the 
north of our neck of the Woods. 05 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 5 
Waco, Texas 73 96 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 5 5 
Paris, Texas 71 92 70 93 72 / 10 10 5 5 5 
Denton, Texas 75 95 74 96 75 / 10 5 5 5 5 
McKinney, Texas 75 95 73 95 74 / 10 5 5 5 5 
Dallas, Texas 77 97 75 95 77 / 10 5 5 5 5 
Terrell, Texas 74 95 73 95 74 / 10 10 5 5 5 
Corsicana, Texas 72 94 72 94 74 / 10 10 10 5 5 
Temple, Texas 70 95 72 94 73 / 10 20 20 10 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


79/25