283 
fxus64 khgx 050237 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
937 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Discussion... 
the bulk of the strong precipitation offshore has finally dissipated with 
the loss of daytime heating...as well as the activity inland but 
we are still seeing some echoes moving ashore. So far things are 
good (i.E. Rain free) for most of southeast Texas tonight concerning fire- 
works of the man-made variety. However the upper low hanging at or above 
the Lower Texas coast should help to keep US more wet than dry through 
the remainder of the weekend. As evident on WV satellite imagery 
loops...there is still quite a bit of moisture over the western Gulf 
and it looks like we are in position a for its influx. Next runs 
should be interesting with how it handles things. But for now no 
major changes to the going forecast - we should see a lot of re-dev- 
elopment over the Gulf overnight and see it head this way around 
sunrise. 41 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 331 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 
scattered thunderstorms and rain over the northern counties will exit the area well 
before 00z. Some redevelopment of light showers will occur over 
the SW zones as temperatures have warmed back into the 80s. This activity 
is still expected to diminish by sunset. Radar shows another band 
of convection developing just south of the coastal waters...moving 
north at 20 kts. This band could affect the immediate coastal 
areas this evening...but should diminish as it tries to push 
inland into the cooler/more stable air. Another round of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain 
will form over the waters late tonight and begin pushing inland 
toward sunrise. 


While the NAM solution is closest to reality...the models are 
basically having a hard time with this mostly mesoscale-driven 
convection. The medium range models have been flip-flopping between 
wet and dry...and which days will be more active. Gpsmet data...along 
with satellite/radar imagery indicates a large area of 2 inch precipitable waters  
currently located from the southern half of southeast Texas across the northwest 
Gulf. WV imagery shows a west to east oriented upper level shear 
axis in place from The Big Bend to northern Louisiana. This feature 
will keep the upper flow slightly diffluent over the area. Little 
change in the airmass is expected for the next several days...with 
capping almost none and convective temperatures only in the middle/upper 80s. 
Expect a continuation of daily rounds of scattered shra/tsra...developing 
near the coast overnight/early morning and spreading inland each 
day. Will have highest probability of precipitation over the SW zones where moisture is 
deepest...which is good as this area needs the rain the most. 
Lowest probability of precipitation will be over the NE zones where precipitable waters  will remain 
1.5-1.7 inches. The increased clouds/scattered precipitation will keep 
temperatures pretty reasonable for early July through the period. Building 
upper high over the southeast states will begin to ridge westward 
over the area late next week. This will result in a gradual drying 
and warming trend beginning about Thursday. 


The main threats from the storms over the weekend will be gusty 
winds...cloud to ground lightning...and brief heavy rainfall. 
Short-lived funnel clouds or waterspouts will be possible in the 
tropical airmass. 35 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 72 93 73 93 73 / 20 40 20 30 20 
Houston (iah) 71 91 72 92 72 / 30 50 20 40 20 
Galveston (gls) 76 88 78 88 78 / 40 50 30 40 20 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$