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fxus64 kmaf 051920 cca 
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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
isolated to scattered showers and few thunderstorms continue to be 
in the forecast this afternoon across the area as upslope 
southeast flow persists. Development should be confined to areas 
south and west of the Pecos River. Most active storms will be 
along the Davis Mountains and northward into the guadalupes where 
weak surface trough axis is located along with highest cape and shear 
values. Current visible Sat indicating that cumulus development has begun 
over the higher terrain of West Texas. Expecting radar echos to 
begin showing up within the next couple hours. With only mild 
instability and little shear to work with...severe threat this 
afternoon appears to be minimal. This mornings upper air sounding 
depicting precipitable waters  in the 1.25 inch range along with slow expected 
storm movement will result in heavy rainfall and localized flash 
flooding as the main threat. Other areas across the region will 
remain relatively quiet with just a few passing high clouds. 
Temperatures today and through the week will remain a few degrees 
below average although a very gradual warming back to normal is 
expected by the end of this week. 


The main focus for the remainder of the weekend and through next 
week is the precipitation forecast. Upper level ridge will begin 
building in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Abundant 
moisture will surge northwestward along the Rio Grande and well 
into the region. Shortwaves rotating around the high pressure 
will provide a focusing mechanism for precipitation development. Best 
chance for rainfall appear to be on the western and southern 
portions of the County Warning Area. 


Another area of potential activity comes into play middle week with the 
possibility of a cold front approaching the area. GFS brings this 
feature farthest south to near the lub area. If it becomes more 
influenced by outflow...reaching into Lea County or the northern 
Permian Basin is not out of the question. Results would be in the 
form of increased probability of precipitation more so than significant decrease in temperatures. 


There is general agreement between the models in the upper level 
pattern but with slight differences in the placement and strength 
of the ridge over the Gulf. The European model (ecmwf) solution gradually 
strengthens and shifts the high westward...cutting of flow of 
moisture to the area by late in the period. The GFS has a similar 
position but not as deep. The NAM is the strongest of the 3 but 
with the most eastward in position. Therefore...with lack of good 
model consistency...kept probability of precipitation in the 20-30 range through the week. 


Meffer 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 69 86 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 
Carlsbad nm 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 20 
Dryden Texas 69 90 75 87 / 10 20 20 20 
Fort Stockton Texas 67 85 68 90 / 10 20 10 20 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 64 76 63 82 / 10 20 10 20 
Hobbs nm 65 87 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 
Marfa Texas 58 80 62 84 / 10 20 20 20 
Midland International Airport Texas 68 89 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Odessa Texas 68 90 72 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Wink Texas 69 89 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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