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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
511 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
an upper trough will move in from the west across the panhandles 
tonight and Sunday morning. As a result...scattered to broken high 
level clouds can be expected. VFR conditions will prevail. Southerly 
winds will diminish this evening by 01z Sunday to around 5 to 10 
knots. A cold front will move through the three taf sites between 10z 
and 14z Sunday shifting the winds to the north 10 to 20 knots...then 
diminishing in the afternoon after 18z Sunday to around 5 to 15 
knots or less and veering around to the northeast and east. 


Schneider 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 128 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
upper level pattern will remain progressive through this forecast. 
This means periodic cold fronts for the panhandles as upper air 
disturbances move quickly across the northern and central rockies and 
plains. These cold fronts will surge quickly southward behind these 
disturbances through the next week. The panhandles should equal out 
to about normal on temperatures this week. Some days we will be just 
below normal and some days we will see readings just above normal. 
Precipitation chances look to be slim to none for the region through 
next Saturday. 


There could be somewhat of a pattern change by later in the 
Thanksgiving weekend as the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. 
This may help to drag some colder Canadian air this way. Models do 
not agree on our precipitation chances late in the weekend into the 
first few days of December. The GFS keeps our region dry...while the 
European model (ecmwf) holds out some hope for precipitation just beyond this forecast for 
next Sunday as a strong upper level low digs into the southern Great 
Basin. 


Kept temperatures close to the cooler met guidance over the next 
couple of days as it seems to handle the strength of the next 
couple of fronts best. 


Thanks for the coordination abq. 


Fire weather... 
winds will get strong at times this week with the passage of the 
cold fronts. But the relative humidity is expected to stay out of 
the critical range. 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


11/14