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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
707 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail across the panhandles while an upper 
level ridge remains over the area. 


Nunez 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
large middle/upper ridge continues to strengthen as it builds further to 
the east. Subtropical moisture has pushed further west into The Four 
Corners region in response to upper low spinning over southwestern Texas. 
Without good moisture feed plus synoptic scale subsidence and warm 
middle level temperatures...precipitation chances look fairly low today. Temperatures today 
will be a bit warmer with a dry airmass in place and warm 850 hpa 
temperatures...with highs in the 90s expected. 


The weather pattern for much of the week will be dominated by 
aforementioned ridge as it remains parked over the central/Southern 
Plains. Surface Lee trough develops over eastern Colorado Monday but 
with moisture feed remaining west of the County Warning Area...left forecast dry. 
Latest 00z GFS run indicates precipitation chances increasing toward the end 
of the week as higher Theta-E air shifts further to the east which 
may allow for any mountain convection to drift into the northwest 
portions of the County Warning Area. In addition...medium range models indicate a 
weak upper trough moving through the northern Great Lakes by Friday with 
a cold front pushing across the Central Plains. The 00z run of the European model (ecmwf) 
show the front remaining north of the panhandles with any quantitative precipitation forecast just 
northwest of the County Warning Area. Did not make any changes to probability of precipitation during this 
time period however precipitation chances are questionable and later trends in 
the models will have to be monitored for any possible implications to 
the going forecast. 


Clk 


Fire weather... 
large middle/upper ridge will bring hot temperatures to the panhandles not only 
today but also through next week. Surface Lee trough will 
develop/deepen in eastern Colorado Monday but only modest wind speeds 
are expected. In addition...minimum relative humidities should be at 
or just above 20 percent. Thus fire weather concerns will remain 
minimal. 


Clk 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


08/05