842 
fxus64 kcrp 182103 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
403 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Update...went ahead a did a quick updated based on radar trends 
to the south. Raised probability of precipitation for remained of afternoon and early 
evening for Webb...Duval and Jim Wells counties. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...two distinct 
tongues of higher precipitable waters  seen on the GOES sounder imagery...one from 
the middle Texas coastal waters up through the Victoria Crossroads 
and another down in the Rio Grande Valley. Not surprisingly these 
two areas are where isolated showers are occurring. May be a slight 
chance the isolated showers down in the valley may work up towards 
southern Webb...southern Duval and southern Jim Wells counties 
through the remainder of the late afternoon and early evening. 
Threw in a small sliver of 10 probability of precipitation to account for this. Otherwise 
the showers across the northeast and to the south will dissipate 
in the evening with loss of heating. 


A weak upper level trough along the coast will move west overnight 
and into Mexico Saturday morning. Expect a modest increase in precipitable waters  
as this happens and isolated showers reforming over the Gulf 
waters early Saturday morning. Slightly better coverage for 
isolated showers during the day Saturday as the trough pulls off 
to the west. 


Marine...a weak onshore flow early this afternoon will strengthen 
through this evening across the nearshore waters and bays...close 
to marginal scec conditions...but might not quite reach it in many 
locations. Isolated showers will re-develop early Saturday morning 
across the Gulf and move inland during the day Saturday. 


Long term (sunday through friday)...an upper low moving slowly nwwd 
across northern Mexico and SW Texas along with marginally favorable moisture 
profiles and the seabreeze will produce isolated to scattered 
convection on Sunday. By Monday...the County Warning Area is expected to dry out as 
a weak ridge axis builds in aloft. High temperatures will respond accordingly as 
a dry subsident airmass allows temperatures to soar several degrees above climatology. 
After Monday the forecast will become more interesting and potentially 
problematic. A strong tropical wave currently in the central 
Caribbean Sea is expected to track into northern Mexico on Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. This wave will likely become a tropical cyclone before making 
landfall south of Brownsville. Suprisingly all the medium range 
models are in relatively good agreement in keeping the core of this 
system well to our south. However...it still looks like we will be 
dealing with increased rain chances and slightly higher seas given 
this potential track. As a result...have upped probability of precipitation once again 
especially on Wednesday. Lingering tropical moisture on Thursday and Friday 
will maintain the chance probability of precipitation. Will boost seas up to marginal Small Craft Advisory criteria 
for the offshore waters for Wednesday/Wednesday night with a slow diminishment 
thereafter. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 73 93 74 93 76 / 10 20 10 30 10 
Victoria 72 94 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 20 10 
Laredo 77 99 77 100 77 / 20 10 10 20 20 
Alice 72 98 73 97 73 / 20 20 10 30 10 
Rockport 78 91 79 91 80 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Cotulla 72 99 72 99 73 / 10 10 10 20 20 
Kingsville 73 95 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 30 10 
Navy corpus 77 90 78 89 79 / 10 20 10 20 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Jr/76...short term