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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
1151 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Aviation...will continue to maintain scenario of morning convection 
over the eastern areas in the morning and continue with 
tempos/prob30s. Will end the mention of rain by 20z kcrp and kvct 
with no rain mentioned after 22z kali and klrd. Since most 
activity has been showers with only a few lightning strikes (and 
GFS-MOS has low probs for thunder) will just go with showers. Models 
are indicating a bit more boundary layer winds so will go a bit 
higher on winds overall. VFR conditions expected outside of 
+shra... could have brief MVFR ceilings kali outside of convection as 
have been seeing for past couple of days before sunrise. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1006 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 


.Corrected for coastal waters section... 


Update...lowered probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast values and nudged temperatures down a 
degree or two based on current observation and this morning's lows. Am 
banking on similar situation that has been occurring the last few 
days...but did keep probability of precipitation in the chance category over the 
southeastern half of the County warning forecast area...and likely over the offshore 
waters. Vapor loop is showing two circulations...dominant one is 
near The Big Bend and the other weaker one is near the crp 
coastline. If first low not too far away...could produce greater 
areal coverage than what has been observed the last few days...and 
that is why probability of precipitation have not been lowered more. Rest of package after 
the first period OK for now...so no other changes at this time 
(leave for middle shift). Overall coastal forecast seems fine but did 
lower winds since they have come down quite a bit. Updated products 
out. 


Previous discussion... /issued 701 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 


Update...similar to the last few days...diurnal convection is 
winding down and areal coverage is decreasing...so have lowered 
probability of precipitation for this evening. For now...maintained the same probability of precipitation for the 
overnight hours. Adjusted winds up a bit over the coastal waters. 
No changes to temperatures or moisture grids at this time...and to the 
remainder of the forecast package. Products have been issued 
except for coastal waters forecast...wibis. 


Aviation...isolated shra's are possible ovrnight but will go with 
generally VFR conditions tonight. Toward morning rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity 
is expected to increase across the area which will lead to MVFR/IFR 
conditions briefly at times...otherwise VFR ceilings above 35hft and 
vsby's greater than 6sm will prevail through Sat afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 


Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...convection across 
the waters early this morning moved inland and produced an outflow 
boundary before inland areas had much time to destableize. This 
limited stronger rain showers and thunderstorms for most part inland and caused 
surface divergence to develop across the coastal Bend while weak 
showers and rain that did form stabilized the atmosphere. There is 
some sort of mesoscale convective vortex seen in radar loops moving north across Baffin Bay 
at this time and this feature is providing an area of rain with some 
embedded rain showers along the southern coastl Bend and east across the 
offshore waters. This complicated setup makes tonights forecast 
tough as the negative mesoscale influences counter a very moist 
atmosphere west/ weak large scale lift associated west/ upper level low best 
seen above 500 mb. 


Current thinking is there will be enough heating and increasing 
moisture convergence (as seen on msas at 20z) for redevelopment 
of scattered convection across the area this afternoon and evening in 
addition to any rain generated by the mesoscale convective vortex. Also...outflows from 
numerous thunderstorms well offshore (some of these apparent in Sat loops 
moving north along the Mexican coast) may provide additional focus 
for rain showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf waters later tonight in 
addition to the usual noctural wind speed convergence along the 
nearshore waters. Based on this will show probability of precipitation in the high end scattered 
Cat west/ likely over the Gulf (and far west this even) which is 
slightly above the mav in some spots. 


Combination of the weak upper low across the ro grande valley and 
deep tropical moisture will lead to likely probability of precipitation area wide on Sat. 
Unpredictable mesoscale boundaries will provide focus for best 
storms and heavier rain...but an early outflow boundary similar to 
what happened today is possible and this could limit quantitative precipitation forecast. Will 
therefore keep mention of heavy rainfall out of the forecast...although 
it is possible...and will not buy off on inches of quantitative precipitation forecast indicated 
by some guidance/models. Currently grids indicate 1/2 to 1 inch 
quantitative precipitation forecast...which could easily go either up or down. Similar to today 
heavier amounts will isolated to scattered and there will likely be holes 
where less than 1/4 inch occurs. Clouds and rain will hold temperatures 
in the 80s which is obviously well below normal. Mav lows look 
pretty good. 


Long-term (sunday through friday)...the medium range models 
continue to paint a wet picture for the extended with precipitable waters  hovering 
around the 2 inch mark with a persistent general weakness aloft over 
south Texas. The precipitation uncertainties lie within the details as no 
particular day next week seems to be wetter than the next. Mesoscale 
processes will be the main driver for day-to-day precipitation chances. 
Overall...decided to increase probability of precipitation Sunday and Monday generally 
following the diurnal pattern of higher precipitation chances over the Gulf 
during the morning translating inland through the afternoon. 
Maintained chance probability of precipitation Tuesday through Thursday and tapered them 
downward by Friday as a low/middle level ridge is prognosticated to build into 
the western Gulf. The increased moisture/cloud cover is expected to 
keep temperatures near to below normal through most of the extended and 
gradually increase to near normal values by the end of the week as 
atmospheric moisture decreases. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 72 85 75 88 74 / 40 70 50 50 20 
Victoria 70 86 72 88 73 / 30 60 30 50 20 
Laredo 73 86 75 92 77 / 20 70 60 50 30 
Alice 71 86 73 89 73 / 30 70 40 50 20 
Rockport 73 85 78 87 78 / 40 70 50 50 20 
Cotulla 70 87 72 90 73 / 20 70 50 50 30 
Kingsville 71 86 74 89 74 / 40 70 50 50 20 
Navy corpus 71 85 77 87 78 / 40 70 50 50 20 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Gw/86...short term 
gw/86...aviation 

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