974 
fxus64 klub 212346 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
546 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail at klbb through the taf period with a 
period of LIFR/IFR at kcds tomorrow morning. Fog and low stratus 
should make its way back into the kcds terminal after midnight and 
last through middle morning again. High cloudiness moving in 
overnight should move out of the area by tomorrow afternoon. A 
cold front will then move through the area tomorrow afternoon 
through both terminals briefly increasing winds immediately behind 
the front. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Short term... 
approaching upper level trough will aid in Lee cyclogenesis over 
southeastern Colorado and then push a weak cold front into much of the 
County warning forecast area...perhaps stalling across the rolling plains...by Sunday 
evening with return flow quickly picking up ahead of another strong 
front on Monday. Predominant forecast challenge will be development of 
fog and/or stratus across the rolling plains overnight tonight. 
Guidance continues to call for near-saturated conditions across the 
far eastern counties. With a little better srly flow tonight...will 
call for areas of fog after midnight over the rolling plains 
although some uncertainty exists with density/coverage. On The 
Caprock...skies should remain mostly clear overnight and not quite 
as cool as last night. As highlighted in the fwflub...an elevated 
fire danger will exist behind the cold front where gusty winds 
combine with low moisture levels and cured fuels...particularly west 
of the I-27/US 87 corridor. 26 


Long term... 
GFS has remained slightly faster with the timing of the cold front 
on Monday night...though both seem to agree on the timing of the 
front exiting the County Warning Area. Also...due to the slower progression of the 
upper air low the NAM brings some low level moisture into the eastern 
zones...couldn/T bite given previous runs and current trends. 
Otherwise...little change to the previous package therefore dry 
conditions and seasonal temperatures through the forecast. Though the 
European model (ecmwf) has hinted at a chance of precipitation by the weekend. GFS has 
however kept the associated low much further north...therefore 
have kept probability of precipitation low at this time. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 26 61 27 62 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Tulia 29 63 30 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Plainview 30 65 32 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Levelland 30 66 38 67 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lubbock 33 66 38 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denver City 33 68 38 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Brownfield 32 68 37 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Childress 39 64 43 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
spur 37 67 37 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Aspermont 40 66 41 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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