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fxus64 kbro 061442 
afdbro 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
942 am CDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis...once again...numerous showers and a few embedded 
thunderstorms cover most of the lower rgv and deep south Texas 
this morning. Each day since the 4th the exact location of the 
heavier rains have varied...and today is no exception with the 
bigger daily totals so far (radar-based) in Hidalgo County which 
had a solid band just after sunrise and continues to see light to 
moderate rains generally along and north of Highway 83. 


The current axis of rains extends from Zapata County southeast to 
Brownsville...so once again Cameron County continues to add to the 
building July rain totals as kbro Airport is over half an inch so 
far this morning. Outside of the rain areas...skies are mostly 
cloudy. Tempeartures range through the 70s. 


&& 


Short term update...same stuff different day? While band #1 is 
making its way across the area...another is developing about 100 
miles southeast of the Rio Grande near Brownsville and expect this 
activity to slide into the populated lower rgv toward noon. 
Additional bands are possible through middle afternoon before things 
end. In all...situation similar to yesterday but probably a bit 
lower rainfall totals in the populated lower rgv...closer to 0.5 
to 1.5 inches compared with the 1.5 to 3 inches which fell on 
Saturday. 


A quick look into the future suggests another heavy rain day in 
similar areas on Monday based on the 06z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf)...each 
pinning excellent 250 mb divergence on a southeast to northwest 
line across the lower rgv on each side of the border...on into 
deep south Texas. Monday night/early Tuesday suggest the heaviest 
ranis shifting into the middle rgv/Rio Grande Highlands as a low 
level jet piles moisture up the river...but will take a better 
look at 12z data before addressing further. 


As for the update...have only adjusted temperatures down across 
the Rio Grande plains out east to Jim Hogg and Brooks counties as 
thicker clouds and expected afternoon lighter rains/debris should 
hold values down in the 80s at best...so have knocked down into 
the low to middle 80s there as well. Will update zone forecast text 
shortly and new grids will be sent as well. 


Long term update...he big question in the longer range period will be how 
quickly will the 500 mb ridging build west over the Gulf Coast 
eventually shifting the tropical moisture away from deep south Texas. 
Both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS have maintained pretty good consistency 
in gradually drying out the region later this upcoming week. 
However...daytime heating and lingering low level moisture will 
likely require a mention of at least 20 to 30 % probability of precipitation towards next 
weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...the lower rgv airports will continue to be plagued by 
periodic downpours reducing visibilities and ceilings throughout the day. 
Lightning has been pretty limited today with the vast majority of 
the activity being moderate to heavy showers. However...isolated 
T-storms will continue to be a threat for the current taf period. 
Will maintain a trend of general VFR/MVFR conditions with brief 
reductions to IFR ceilings/visibilities with the passing conv. 




&& 


Marine...the offshore conv has produced brief wind gusts at buoy020 
up to 39 kts from 09-10z this morning. The winds have since calmed 
down to 15 to 20 kts with swells around 5 feet. Expect this overall 
trend to continue...but will need to closely monitor the region for 
the conv potential throughout the day which may push the marine 
conditions into smw levels. The overall moderate onshore flow will 
continue today with the broad surface ridging continiuing to 
dominate the southeastern U.S. The current coastal waters forecast wording looks on 
track with no major changes needed. 




&& 


Hydrology...July rain totals most associated with the current 
pattern of pooled deep layer moisture and meandering upper level 
support...continue to add up. Will issue an updated pns before 
1030 with the latest totals (as we have them) through 10 am this 
morning. Will also update our top news web Page with a map of the 
rain totals as well as what's expected into middle week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Bayview/Port Isabel 83 78 84 78 / 70 70 60 40 
Brownsville 83 77 84 77 / 80 70 60 40 
Harlingen 83 76 84 75 / 80 70 60 40 
McAllen 84 76 84 74 / 80 80 60 50 
Rio Grande City 85 74 88 74 / 70 80 60 50 
South Padre Island 82 80 84 79 / 70 60 50 40 


&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


This product is also available on the web at: 
http://www.Weather.Gov/Brownsville 


Short term update...52/bsg 
aviation/marine/long term update...60/ts