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fxus64 kewx 051138 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
638 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Aviation... 
isolated rain showers will increase in areal coverage later this morning, 
peak at scattered to numerous rain showers/thunderstorms and rain this afternoon, and then 
decrease to isolated rain showers this evening into the overnight. Main 
impact times at the taf sites will be between 18z and 24z. Areas 
of MVFR ceilings can be expected early this morning and during the 
overnight hours, as well as in and near shra/tsra. Otherwise, VFR 
skies with areas of higher ceilings will prevail. IFR/MVFR visibilities are 
possible in shra/tsra. Variable mainly southerly winds less than 5 kts 
will become southerly 5 to 15 kts from late morning into early evening, 
then become variable mainly southerly less than 5 kts tonight. Some 
gusts to 30 kts are possible in and near shra/tsra. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Discussion... 
unsettled pattern aloft and deep moisture in the lower levels 
bodes well for rain chances across much of south central Texas 
through the next several days. While convective activity is much 
more sparse this morning along the coastal Bend and across the deep 
south as compared to 24 hours ago...showers and thunderstorms will 
become more numerous as the day progresses. The best chances for rain 
today will once again be during the afternoon and evening hours as 
diurnal heating is at its peak. The highest probability of precipitation are also once 
again across the southern and western portions of the region due 
to the proximity to the upper low and available moisture. Chances for 
rain will remain in the forecast through the rest of the Holiday 
weekend and into next week. 


The abundance of moisture in the boundary layer will help keep 
afternoon temperatures below early July normals through most of 
the forecast period. Afternoon highs through the next few days are 
expected to peak in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Middle-Range 
models are indicating a weak ridge developing in the western Gulf 
and therefore slightly greater stability in the lower to middle 
levels across our area for the middle and end of next week. Have 
stayed close to gfs(x) probability of precipitation for this time frame as they are in 
close alignment with climatology values. Even if the chance for rain 
dwindles during this time frame...temperatures are expected to 
remain near or slightly below normal as moisture levels should 
still be great enough to keep temperatures dampened. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 90 73 91 73 93 / 30 20 30 20 30 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 69 92 72 93 / 30 20 30 20 30 
del Rio International Airport 88 70 89 75 92 / 50 30 40 30 30 
San Antonio International Airport 88 72 87 74 91 / 40 30 50 20 40 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


25/04