913 
fxus64 khgx 182027 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
327 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion... 
the upper low was drifting westward into S Texas this afternoon. The 
models look similar in building a middle and upper level ridge into 
the lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains over the next 
few days. This ridge should stay in place over much of the next 
week. 


As the upper low drifts westward into south and central Texas on 
Saturday...the added lift should aid the seabreeze across southeast Texas. 
The next weather feature on the horizon is the tropical wave over 
the Caribbean. This system still has a ways to go before 
affecting the Gulf...current model solutions place the system into 
the far southern Gulf during the first few days of the new week. 
Moisture associated with it is forecast by the GFS and European model (ecmwf) to 
affect southeast Texas late Tuesday into Thursday. About the only model 
consistency has been with the moisture pattern for the middle week 
period...so in staying with the model and surrounding office 
agreement will go with chance probability of precipitation mainly during the daytime from 
Tuesday into Thursday. 


A few hot days are in store before the moisture arrives to the 
area. Upper 90s are not out of the question over some of the 
western counties of the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. 


40 


&& 


Marine... 
light winds/low seas persist through the weekend. Vast majority of 
models showing the tropical wave currently in the central 
Caribbean moving off the Yucatan into the southern Gulf by the start 
of the workweek. As is typical with these type of features...will 
likely see wide range of model solutions as to where it'll go and 
how strong it will be from run-to-run until if/when any 
organization gets better established. But based on the current 
forecast upper coast might start seeing some swells start moving in on 
Tuesday. Since forecast is quite uncertain will undercut wave height 
guidance right now until confidence improves. At this time...it 
appears middle level ridge overhead should keep anything that does 
manage to develop off to the south. 47 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated/scattered seabreeze convection should dissipate with the loss of 
heating this evening. In the meantime...conditions are somewhat 
favorable for some strong winds in the stronger storms. VFR 
overnight except for the usual MVFR fog toward morning at cxo & 
lbx. More of the same tomorrow with isolated/scattered seabreeze precipitation 
with daytime heating. It may develop a few hours sooner than today 
however. 47 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 72 97 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 20 10 
Houston (iah) 74 94 74 94 74 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Galveston (gls) 79 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...40 
aviation/marine...47