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fxus64 kama 082033 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
333 PM CDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Discussion... 
precipitation chances will be the most difficult part of this 
forecast cycle. Appears the panhandles will continue to be in a 
fairly wet pattern for most of this week. Best chance for rain 
appears to be today in the west and again tomorrow night for most of 
the area. Showers and a few storms already forming in the west and south 
in areas which had less cloud cover this morning...and therefore more 
surface heating. Feel that this activity will be primarily driven by 
surface heating and should diminish after sunset as main upper level 
forcing appears to be further to the north. Storms will be very slow 
moving today...and with very high atmospheric moisture content it is 
likely that the storms today will be very efficient rain producers. 
12z sounding showed very deep moisture and precipitable water values 
above 1.5 inches. Flash flooding will be a concern to watch out 
for...and have mentioned heavy rain in the public forecast. 


Surface Lee trough develops tomorrow as another shortwave trough 
rounds the upper ridge and emerges into the plains. This will help to 
drive a cold front south through the panhandles Saturday and Saturday 
night. It appears there will be some drying ahead of the front with 
southwesterly surface winds...but still expect enough moisture to be 
in place to allow thunderstorms to develop along this front Saturday 
and Saturday evening. The front will push further south than the more 
recent fronts that have gone through this region as the upper level 
wave will be closer to the panhandles than with previous systems. 


Another round of storms appears possible Sunday night as upslope flow 
produces thunderstorms over the mountains in the afternoon...and 
northwesterly upper level flow pushes these storms southeast into the 
panhandles in the evening. 


Did not make many changes to the extended forecast. Northwest flow 
aloft continues...with the potential for evening thunderstorms most 
nights especially if any disturbances move through the flow as well. 


Stayed close to mavmos guidance for temperatures and probability of precipitation. Did make 
some adjustments to low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday 
night after the front moves through. Feel that north winds on 
Saturday night and light winds Sunday night should allow temperatures 
to drop more than the mav indicated. 


Kimble 


&& 


Fire weather... 
do not anticipate major fire weather concerns as much moisture and 
precipitation chances linger for the next several days. There may be 
some slightly drier air moving in on southwest winds ahead of the 
cold front tomorrow...but expect humidities to stay above 20 percent 
and winds to stay near or below 15 knots. 


Kimble 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 68 93 66 87 66 / 30 10 30 10 30 
Beaver OK 67 93 68 86 64 / 30 20 30 10 20 
Boise City OK 66 91 65 86 63 / 40 20 30 20 30 
Borger Texas 70 94 68 86 67 / 30 10 30 10 30 
Boys Ranch Texas 68 95 67 88 66 / 40 10 30 20 30 
canyon Texas 68 96 66 89 66 / 30 10 20 10 30 
Clarendon Texas 69 96 69 89 67 / 20 10 20 10 20 
Dalhart Texas 65 92 66 87 63 / 40 20 30 20 30 
Guymon OK 67 93 67 86 64 / 30 20 30 10 20 
Hereford Texas 66 94 64 89 64 / 40 10 20 20 30 
Lipscomb Texas 69 94 68 87 64 / 20 20 30 10 20 
Pampa Texas 70 93 68 86 65 / 20 10 30 10 20 
Shamrock Texas 70 95 70 89 67 / 20 10 30 10 20 
Wellington Texas 70 96 71 90 68 / 20 10 20 10 20 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


15/13