109 
fxus64 kcrp 052016 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
316 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...combination of middle- 
upper level trough across the coastal plains and deep tropical 
moisture will continue to provide a wet scenario through the short 
term. Much of the convection from earlier today has moved north of 
the region...however isolated rain showers and thunderstorms and rain showers continue across the 
coastal Bend to vct west/ some debris rains near nqi and Baffin Bay. 
A broken line of thunderstorms and large area of debris rains is moving 
north off the deep S Texas coast. Typically would expect these to 
dissipate while moving into our offshore waters this time of 
day...however mesoscale thunderstorm outflow is dominating the wind patterns 
and there is not much of a sea breeze evident as a result. In fact 
latest msas shows moisture convergence along the coast and 
nearshore waters and this should allow the convection to move into 
our Gulf waters...possibly impacting the coastal Bend late this 
afternoon and evening. Even if the complex dies...debris rains could 
impact the area. With that said...have kept probability of precipitation higher than normal for 
the evening hours ranging from 40% in the coastal Bend to 60% 
offshore. 


Not much change expected in the pattern for sun as the moisture 
and upper trough remain in place. Will show high scattered to likely probability of precipitation 
(50-70%) favoring western zones due to closer proximity to the upper 
feature and higher moisture. Again...since the upper feature is 
weak...mesoscale influences will dominate were best rain showers and 
thunderstorms will occur and could make or break any rain event. Will hold 
onto lingering probability of precipitation in the evening...then expect scattered convection to 
begin to re-fire across the Gulf waters early Monday morning as we 
reload once again. Generally leaning toward mav or persistence 
temperatures...W/ jst slightly warmer lows next few nights. 


&& 


Long-term (monday through saturday)...two middle-level anticyclones 
(one over the eastern Pacific and the other over the western 
atlantic) will continue to produce a general weakness over south 
Texas through Thursday. In addition...medium range models continue 
to forecast rich tropical moisture (pws at or above 2 inches) persisting across 
the region through midweek. As a result...high-end chance to likely 
probability of precipitation seem appropriate for the entire region during the 
Monday-Thursday period. Still anticipate the diurnal pattern of 
precipitation developing over the Gulf during the morning hours translating 
inland during the afternoon as diabatic forcing (albeit weak) 
destabilizes the inland sections. Deep atmospheric moisture content 
decreases Friday into Saturday as the Bermuda ridge is prognosticated to 
build into the western Gulf by the end of next week. Precipitation chances 
should taper off by Friday with isolated sea breeze activity 
expected and dry conditions Saturday as the ridge becomes 
established over the western Gulf. Temperatures are expected to be 
below normal Monday through Thursday...with near normal readings 
expected by Friday and Saturday as atmospheric moisture content 
decreases. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 75 87 76 89 76 / 40 60 30 60 20 
Victoria 73 90 74 90 73 / 20 50 20 40 20 
Laredo 74 89 76 93 76 / 40 60 40 50 30 
Alice 73 90 74 91 74 / 30 70 30 60 20 
Rockport 77 89 78 88 78 / 40 40 30 50 20 
Cotulla 71 90 72 92 73 / 30 60 30 40 30 
Kingsville 74 88 75 90 75 / 40 70 30 60 20 
Navy corpus 77 87 79 87 78 / 40 50 30 60 20 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Mjg...short term 
tm/95...long term