746 
fxus64 kmeg 060813 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
313 am CDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Discussion... 
upper level pattern will begin a transition today that will bring 
reduced rain chances and warmer temperatures to the midsouth through 
midweek. An upper level ridge over Texas will edge east toward the 
lower MS River Valley...pushing an upper level low over the Ohio 
River valley east. 


For today...expect to see isolated thunderstorms...mainly over 
MS. These thunderstorms were ongoing at discussion time...aided by 
a shortwave diving south through the Ozarks. 


Medium range models remain consistent in dropping a low amplitude 
broad upper level trough into the Great Lakes around midweek. This 
will place the midsouth back under northwest aloft...briefly. An 
associated surface front will provide focus for scattered showers 
and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday. 


By late Friday...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models build 500mb height 
ridge over AR/la. The models differ slightly on heights... with 
the GFS the strongest at 5960m. The western monsoon should get 
going strong...with subtropical moisture directed from New 
Mexico northeastward into fast moving thunderstorm complexes over 
the northern plains and Great Lakes. For the midsouth...hot and 
humid with with little chance of rain for the upcoming weekend. 


Besides the good corroboration between the GFS and European model (ecmwf)... the 
GFS ensemble members show little variation...leading to increased 
forecast confidence. That said...00z GFS mex guidance temperatures may 
be on the cool side for the upcoming weekend. 


Pwb 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 92 74 94 76 / 20 10 10 10 
mkl 91 68 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 
jbr 93 72 94 73 / 20 10 10 10 
tup 90 70 94 71 / 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...dense fog advisory until 8 am CDT this morning for Clay- 
Craighead-Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi- 
Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis. 


MO...dense fog advisory until 8 am CDT this morning for Dunklin- 
Pemiscot. 


MS...none. 
Tennessee...dense fog advisory until 8 am CDT this morning for Carroll- 
Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman- 
Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison- 
McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. 


&& 


$$