278 
fxus64 kmeg 050111 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
811 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Discussion... 
isolated showers remained across the middle south at 8 PM CDT. The 
greatest threat for overnight convection will be along the 
southern border of the County Warning Area. Updated the zone forecast earlier to 
lower probability of precipitation to the 20-30 percent through the evening hours. Removed 
chance of precipitation across the north half of the region after 
midnight. Areas of fog are likely to develop late tonight. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 


Discussion... 
a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front 
continues to push across eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi 
this afternoon. Northern part of this line has practically 
dissipated over west Tennessee as some locations never even saw a 
rain drop. Some of these storms have been severe today with 
mostly damaging winds and trees down reported across northeast 
Mississippi. These storms have played havoc on high temperatures 
today with cloud cover continuing over much of the forecast area. 


For tonight...main forecast concerns will be rain chances and the 
development of fog. The above mentioned cold front will be slow to 
clear the midsouth and looks like it will stall across the forecast 
area tonight. As a result...felt somewhat confident to keep high 
probability of precipitation across north Mississippi and eastern Arkansas this evening. 
However...the current area of convection over central Arkansas 
looks like it is taking more of a southeasterly approach rather 
than easterly so probability of precipitation may need to be adjusted just before publish 
time. With the front near the area and ample moisture to work 
with...fog development looks more and more likely especially 
across areas where it rained today. Decided to go ahead and 
include areas of fog for the entire forecast area tonight. 


Upper trough will begin to dig south across the Midwest on 
Saturday helping to push the cold front through the area. Best 
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will be across 
eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi where the greatest moisture 
and lift will reside. Areas north of Interstate 40 will likely see 
mostly dry conditions with only a few isolated storms possible. 
High temperatures will be very dependent on how much cloud cover 
is around and where the storms develop tomorrow so have sided closely 
with MOS guidance. Another upper level disturbance will round the 
base of the upper trough Saturday night which may trigger another 
round of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Both 
the GFS and nam12 models show this feature so have kept chance 
probability of precipitation in the forecast for now. 


Upper ridge will begin to build over the forecast area on Sunday 
and Monday allowing mostly dry conditions to remain over the area. 
Temperatures will begin to heat up into the middle 90s by Monday 
afternoon with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Another cold 
front will begin to approach the area on Tuesday. However...most 
locations will be dry on Tuesday with possible exception of far 
northwestern areas of the midsouth. As an upper level trough moves 
across the Great Lakes region by midweek...the cold front will 
enter the midsouth but looks to stall once again across the 
region. As a result...a wet pattern will develop with showers and 
thunderstorms expected Wednesday through Friday with the best 
chances during the afternoon and evening hours. With a more active 
pattern present towards the end of the week...high temperatures 
look to remain in the middle to upper 80s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 86 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 40 
mkl 83 67 88 68 / 30 30 20 20 
jbr 78 68 90 70 / 20 20 20 30 
tup 91 70 89 69 / 80 40 50 40 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Kns/rjo