030 
fxus62 kcae 050632 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
232 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
upper level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. For the next 
couple of days. This along with increased low level moisture will 
bring an increased chance for mainly afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
scattered showers/storms still continue across the area during the 
early morning hours. Most of the activity was across the southern 
SC midlands with a couple of smaller cells over the upstate. 
Convection should diminish over the next couple of hours. With the 
upper level trough over the Ohio Valley and large surface ridge of 
high pressure off the southeast coast pumping lots of moist air from the 
Atlantic...expect more storms to fire later today mainly during 
the afternoon and evening hours. High precipitable waters  indicate that locally 
heavy rain may be possible with the more intense convection. Weak 
shortwave energy will provide additional triggers for convection. 
High chance probability of precipitation look reasonable. Forecast maximum temperatures at or just 
below consensus and will depend on cloud cover and how early 
precipitation develops during the afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday/... 
frontal boundary currently draped across the Ohio Valley will not 
make much headway southeastward over the weekend and GFS hints at 
the boundary washing out by late Sunday/early Monday. But with 
warm moist airmass in place and lingering upper trough over the 
eastern states...will continue with high chance probability of precipitation into Monday. 
Precipitable waters  approach 2 inches Sunday so some locally heavy rain will again 
be possible. Convection may be mainly diurnal but with weak 
shortwave energy available...activity could persist into the 
late night hours Saturday night and Sunday night. Daytime highs 
around 90 with overnight lows around 70/lower 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
little change in the extended forecast. Models forecast a typical 
June pattern for the area through Friday with weak upper level 
flow and abundant low level moisture. Mex MOS forecasts maximum and 
min temperatures right around normal...lows in lower 70s and highs in 
lower 90s with scattered afternoon and evening pulse thunderstorms. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
weak surface trough across the area will continue to be a focus for 
scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms moving across the east 
midlands are diminishing. Ceilings mainly above 3000ft but expect 
brief MVFR due to visibility in heavy rain early this evening around 
ogb early in the period. Low level moisture continues to increase 
across the area...there may be stratus development late tonight 
especially east of cae. Will forecast scattered low clouds 
and MVFR visibility...low level jet should limit fog. 
Thunderstorms may be more numerous Saturday afternoon with moderate 
instability and approaching middle level short wave trigger. 


Extended aviation outlook...scattered mainly diurnal thunderstorms 
each afternoon Saturday through Wednesday bringing periods of 
MVFR/IFR conditions. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$