053 
fxus62 kgsp 081834 
afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
234 PM EDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will remain stalled south of the area tonight and 
Saturday. Another cold front will approach the region Monday and 
affect the area through middle week keeping high temperatures in upper 
80s to around 90. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
looks like quiet weather is in store for tonight and Sat. Cold front 
is well S and east of the region with high pressure centered over the 
lower Great Lakes controlling our weather. Dewpoints have mixed out 
into the 50s with even some 40s in the mountains. This portends that 
temperatures will be able to fall more rapidly overnight. Lows tonight 
should be a couple categories below seasonal levels per a MOS blend 
with around 60 east of the mountains and from near 50 to the middle 50s 
mountains. High temperatures on Sat should still approach seasonal averages 
with abundant sunshine. Again a MOS blend for maximum temperatures forecasts 
70s to around 80 in the mountains and middle to upper 80s elsewhere. 
Sat should be comfortably warm as dewpoints remain in the 50s. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 230 PM Friday...surface front remains well S of County Warning Area Sat night-sun. 
Mean 500 mb trough remains over east US Sat night through Tuesday with weak 
shortwaves moving through upper flow. A weak surface trough approaches from 
the northwest Sat night and moves through the County Warning Area sun. Without much moisture 
however...it appears we will only see some increased clouds. Where 
the boundary meets better moisture in the far S County Warning Area...went with a 
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms Sun afternoon. Surface high pressure builds in 
from the north Monday but with afternoon heating...weak upper forcing and 
slightly better moisture across the S...included late day slight 
chance probability of precipitation across the S County Warning Area. Some models indicate a wave developing 
along the surface boundary SW of here Monday night-Tue...with the warm 
sector ahead of it surging north toward the County Warning Area. Went with slight chance 
of mainly afternoon probability of precipitation Tuesday. Using a model blend...came up with near average 
temperatures sun-Tue. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/... 
as of 2 PM Friday...not much change in the overall synoptic pattern 
for the medium range. Upper level troffing remains prevalent over 
most of the eastern United States through new day 7. Long range 
models continue to show numerous weak short waves embedded with the 
larger trough during the period...the most amplified of which should 
move over the County Warning Area on Wednesday. Low level moisture values are looking more 
favorable for precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday with some surface based cape 
present. So...I bumped up probability of precipitation for Wednesday afternoon and evening and 
early Thursday as well. Temperatures were largely unchanged and should be near 
seasonal values...if not a bit below. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
with high pressure to the north controlling the weather expect VFR 
conditions through the period. Scattered high based cumulus will 
dissipate around sunset. Some MOS guidance suggests fog is possible 
at kavl late tonight...but looks like cross over temperature will not be 
reached...so no mention of fog. Winds favoring northwest this 
afternoon...expected to to veer NE overnight except at kavl. 


Outlook...dry weather is on tap for Friday night through the first 
part of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return 
to the forecast on Tuesday. Generally VFR condtions will prevail 
through the period. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jpt 
near term...lg 
short term...rb 
long term...jpt 
aviation...lg