827 
fxus62 kcae 050203 aaa 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
1003 PM EDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
upper level trough will set up just to the west of the area. This 
along with increased low level moisture will bring an increased 
chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
updated forecast to keep low chance probability of precipitation for the entire forecast 
area overnight. Storms are still developing over parts of Georgia and 
surface trough will remain in place overnight across the area. In 
addition shortwaves continue to cross the area in the westerly 
upper level flow across the Carolinas. This will keep the chance 
of thunderstorms alive through Saturday. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/... 
moisture expected to continue increasing across the area through the 
weekend with low level south to southwest flow and developing middle/upper 
level trough just to the west of the area. Expect an increasing 
chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. 
Will go with 40-50 pop on Saturday afternoon and 50-55 pop on 
Sunday afternoon. Will continue chance probability of precipitation through the overnight 
hours. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s and daytime highs 
around 90 to the lower 90s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
models forecast a typical June pattern for the area through Friday 
with weak upper level flow and abundant low level moisture. Mex 
MOS forecasts maximum and min temperatures right around normal...lows in 
lower 70s and highs in lower 90s with scattered afternoon and 
evening pulse thunderstorms. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
weak surface trough across the area will continue to be a focus 
for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms 
moving across the central midlands and csra at 00z. Ceilings 
mainly above 3000ft but expect brief MVFR due to visibility in 
heavy rain early this evening around cae and ogb. Thunderstorms 
should diminish east of cae by around 01z to 03z. Low level 
moisture continues to increase across the area...there may be 
stratus development late tonight especially east of cae at this 
time will forecast scattered low clouds and MVFR visibility...low 
level jet should limit fog. Thunderstorms may be more numerous 
Saturday afternoon with moderate instability and approaching middle 
level short wave trigger. 




Extended aviation outlook...scattered mainly diurnal thunderstorms 
each afternoon Saturday through Wednesday bringing periods of 
MVFR/IFR conditions. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term... 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation...07