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afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
726 am EDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Synopsis... 


Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to spin along the SC/NC 
coast today. It is forecast to gradually move NE away from the 
area. A cold front will approach the region Wednesday...bringing 
with it another chance for precipitation. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 


Satellite and radar imagery continue to show ts Cristobal off the 
North Carolina coast early this morning. This is forecast to 
slowly move off to the northeast. Do not expect any rainfall 
across the forecast area today...as we will be under westerly 
dry downsloping winds. This should also help temperatures climb a few 
more degrees above yesterdays readings...which means temperatures in the 
middle to upper 90s. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday night/... 


Dry Sunday night...with overnight lows moderating slightly. The 
hot temperatures will continue on Monday...with most guidance giving 
readings around 100 degrees at most areas. Generally went around 
100 for afternoon temperatures. Can not rule out an isolated shower or 
thunderstorm Monday afternoon...but for now will keep forecast 
dry since coverage would be rather sparse. Weak upper ridge remains 
over the southeast states through Monday night. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 


No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. 
Weak upper level trough develops over the eastern U.S. Tuesday 
into the weekend as weak cold front approaches from the Ohio 
Valley. Models in general keep front just northwest of the area through 
the extended period. Will keep mainly chance probability of precipitation in for diurnal 
convection through Saturday. Temperatures close to normal. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/... 


VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour taf period. As ts 
Cristobal continues to slowly lift northeast away from the 
area...little more than a blanket of high clouds is expected to 
affect the area today. High clouds will hang around through late 
afternoon but then skies should clear out this evening. Winds will 
pick up out of the northwest and gradually shift to the west and 
eventually southwest by tonight in response to the departing 
system. Fog is not anticipated to be a problem tonight as 
temperatures will be quite warm today and there should be enough 
of a dewpoint depression to prevent fog. 


Extended outlook...no significant aviation related hazards through 
Thursday. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...hc