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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
429 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross southern New England this afternoon and 
evening. This should be followed by high pressure from Canada... 
providing dry and warm weather through most of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 10 am this morning/... 
isolated showers have made it into southern New England early this 
morning. Heaviest precipitation seen in northeast mosaic radar seen over SW 
CT...otherwise only brief light showers. Both kfit and kafn reported 
0.02 inches in light showers. 


Have updated the zones and grids to add slight chance to chance probability of precipitation 
through the predawn hours for most areas except S coastal and far east 
Massachusetts locations. 


Other major change was to overnight lows...which were much too warm 
as compared to current conditions. Not expecting temperatures to drop much 
below current readings...which are mainly in the 60s...touching 70 
at kbos...khfd and kbdl at 05z. Dewpoints will remain in the Lower-Middle 
60s overnight as well. This...along with middle to high level cloud 
cover over the region will not allow the temperature to drop. 


&& 


Short term /10 am this morning through 6 PM Sunday/... 
early today...any isolated to scattered showers will end by middle morning... 
then the front will approach from New York state around midday. 


From previous discussion...both the NAM and the GFS show it moving 
through in the afternoon hours which is in agreement with the last 
couple of days of model runs. Because this will be at the peak of 
daytime heating...showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be 
likely. However...there are some limiting factors. Neither the NAM 
or the GFS show any instability in the form of negative lifted 
indices or cape. There is enough shear /about 20kts 0-6km/ for 
thunderstorms but it/S on the low end for anything severe to 
develop. Given this...and the lack of good dynamics...severe 
weather is not likely. It cannot be completely ruled out...there 
may be a storm or two...but it is very unlikely. 


Am expecting mostly cloudy skies as the front approaches and moves 
across...this will hold temperatures down a bit but just to around 
or slightly below normal. Highs will range from the middle 70s to 
around 80. 


Tonight...the cold front will complete it/S trek across 
southern New England and by the early morning hours will have moved 
well out to sea. A few lingering showers are possible...especially 
across the East Coast of Massachusetts. However...these likely will 
have moved out by early Sunday morning. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
30/00z model suite is in excellent agreement through 00z Friday... 
then develop significant differences in their solutions. Used the 
model consensus as the basis for this forecast through Thursday given 
the excellent agreement. Thereafter...stayed closer to the European model (ecmwf) 
solution because the GFS solution looks unrealistic after that time. 
Cannot see why the GFS turns Tropical Storm Hanna north along the 
East Coast with a strong high pressure parked across the northeast 
and Middle Atlantic States. 


Middle level trough deepens across the western states...allowing middle 
level ridge to build across the east. The only fly in the ointment 
could be a persistent middle level cutoff low south of Nova Scotia. At 
this time...do not think this low will retrograde far enough west to 
be a concern. 


Overall a quiet period in store for southern New England. We may see 
a weak cold front approach from the north sometime Thursday into 
Friday. Do not think it will come too far south given the 
aforementioned high pressure. For now...will continue to bring an 
increase in clouds with no mention of precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
early this morning...ceilings continue to fill in at around 6-8kft for 
most areas. Where isolated to scattered showers are occurring...mainly over 
central and western areas at 06z...some ceilings lowering to MVFR with a 
couple of pockets of MVFR visibilities in showers. Expect mainly VFR ceilings 
with a few pockets of MVFR through 14z or so. Early showers should 
taper off then. 


Through the remainder of today...mainly VFR with MVFR ceilings lingering 
along the coast. As the front moves through...scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will move with it from west to east after about 15z. 
When these storms move through...MVFR or possibly IFR conditions 
will occur. 


Tonight...MVFR conditions will linger along the coast as showers and 
thunderstorms move out of that area late...as showers and 
thunderstorms clear the coast...VFR conditions will slowly return. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Generally VFR through the period. Patchy MVFR/IFR is possible in 
early morning fog each day...especially in the Connecticut valley. 


&& 


Marine... 
early this morning...have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for seas. 
Noted that the east coastal buoys were reporting east swells 5 feet every 
10-11 seconds...even as close as buoy 013 east of Boston Harbor. Not 
expecting this to last too long...but felt strong enough to put up 
the small craft through noon at least. Swell may hang on over the 
far eastern waters beyond that...but will allow day shift to extend 
this. 


Reminder of today...S-SW winds will continue with sustained winds 
less than 15 kts and a few gusts between 15 and 20 kts. Seas will 
remain between 2 to 4 feet. 


Tonight...S-SW winds will shift to the northwest as the front pushes out 
onto the waters late Saturday evening. Winds may gust to 20 kts as 
this occurs but otherwise will remain below 15 kts. Seas remain at 
4 feet or less. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Light winds and seas through most of this period. Low pressure 
lingering south of Nova Scotia may send 4 to 5 foot swells to the 
waters east of Cape Cod and Nantucket Monday...but the current 
forecast keeps the heaviest swells outside our forecast area. We 
will need to monitor the potential for rip currents Sunday and 
Monday along the Outer Cape and Nantucket from any southeast swell. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk 
near term...evt 
short term...evt/Belk 
long term...Belk 
aviation...evt/Belk 
marine...evt/Belk 

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