373 
fxus61 kpbz 061418 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
1018 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
an upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley 
this afternoon into Monday...bringing isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms. The next system will affect the area 
Tuesday through Thursday resulting in chances of showers and 
thunderstorms. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
morning update to remove fog and nudge temperatures up a degree 
with fewer clouds this morning. Otherwise previous forecast 
unchanged. 


An upper trough across the western Ohio Valley will continue to 
eastward...moving into the eastern Ohio Valley by tonight. Will 
continue to mention isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms today along 
the trough axis and to the east across PA/WV/MD...with mainly dry 
conditions across Ohio. Activity will diminish tonight as the 
atmosphere stabilizes. Near normal temperatures will prevail. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Monday night/... 
the upper trough will exit into the middle Atlantic region by Monday 
night. Still expect isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms east of 
Pittsburgh Monday as the trough slowly exits. Dry conditions will 
prevail Monday night for all areas in between systems. Temperatures 
will rise to slightly above normal. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the next system will approach the region Tuesday...with the 
frontal band laying up across the area Tuesday night into 
Thursday. Given model timing differences...will keep probability of precipitation 
in the chance category for now through Thursday. Flat ridging 
is prognosticated to build across the area Friday into Saturday for 
dry and seasonably warm conditions. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/... 
a middle level trough of low pressure will remain over the region 
through Tuesday...keeping unsettled weather across area terminals. A 
lack of a boundary to focus convection will be a limiting factor. A 
cold front will then cross Wednesday bringing the potential for more 
widespread showers and storms. High pressure will build in late 
Thursday. Generally MVFR conditions in fog is expected this 
morning...followed by generally VFR. With diurnal heating this 
afternoon...there will be a few hour period with scattered 
storms...around 20z....with MVFR possible. This trend will continue 
for Sunday night through Tuesday...with IFR possible in and near 
storms. Generally VFR is expected for Thursday. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$