541 
fxus61 kpbz 050600 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
200 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a frontal system will remain nearly stationary across the Ohio Valley 
and the Middle Atlantic States through the weekend. This will keep 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the 
forecast...with the greatest chances south of Interstate 70. High 
pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions early next 
week...with shower chances returning by the middle of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
the stationary front remains across northern Kentucky through northern 
Virginia. Waves riding along and slightly north of the frontal 
boundary are resulting in scattered showers from northern WV 
stretching NE along the ridges. This trend will continue 
through today...with some northern nudge to the precipitation 
shield as the next wave rides along the front. Will keep 
scattered probability of precipitation from a zzv/pit/Indiana line south today...with 
numerous showers from mgw eastward into western Maryland. Little or 
no precipitation is expected from I-80 northward. Precipitation chances will 
diminish tonight across all areas as the wave exits. Given cloud 
cover...expect high temperatures cooler than normal today...with 
near normal temperatures tonight. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/... 
the upper level trough will cross the region Sunday into Sunday 
night...with scattered showers/thunderstorms diminishing Sunday night. 
With a few less clouds...temperatures will warm slightly to 
near normal. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
flat high pressure will cross the region Monday for mainly 
dry and warmer conditions. Unsettled conditions will return 
to the area for Tuesday into Thursday as the next frontal 
system slowly crosses the region. Medium range models are in 
general agreement bringing drier and slightly cooler conditions 
by the end of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
a nearly stationary surface boundary coupled with a middle level trough 
will keep unsettled weather over the region into Sunday night. Weak 
surface high pressure will stabilize the airmass somewhat for late 
Monday...before a cold front slides southeast across the area 
terminals Tuesday into Wednesday. 


IFR conditions will be possible this morning in showers...fog and 
low clouds. Prevailing MVFR conditions are expected for much of this 
afternoon. While conditions will prevail in the VFR range for Sunday 
and Monday...periods of IFR in and around storms will be possible in 
and near storms. Generally VFR conditions are then expected for 
Tuesday...with IFR possible in storms Tuesday night and Wednesday. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$