931 
fxus61 kpbz 060605 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
205 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
an upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley 
today into Monday...bringing isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. The next system will affect the area Tuesday through 
Thursday resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
isolated showers are rotating northward along the ridges on the periphery 
of an upper trough across the western Ohio Valley. Fog is beginning 
to develop further to the west in the more stable airmass. 


The upper low will continue to nudge eastward...moving into the 
eastern Ohio Valley by tonight. Will continue to mention isolated to 
scattered showers/thunderstorms today along the trough axis and to the east 
across PA/WV/MD...with mainly dry conditions across Ohio. Activity 
will diminish tonight as the atmosphere stabilizes. Near normal 
temperatures will prevail. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Monday night/... 
the upper trough will exit into the middle Atlantic region by Monday 
night. Still expect isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms east of 
Pittsburgh Monday as the trough slowly exits. Dry conditions will 
prevail Monday night for all areas in between systems. Temperatures 
will rise to slightly above normal. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the next system will approach the region Tuesday...with the 
frontal band laying up across the area Tuesday night into 
Thursday. Given model timing differences...will keep probability of precipitation 
in the chance category for now through Thursday. Flat ridging 
is prognosticated to build across the area Friday into Saturday for 
dry and seasonably warm conditions. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/... 
a middle level trough of low pressure will remain over the region 
through Tuesday...keeping unsettled weather across area terminals. A 
lack of a boundary to focus convection will be a limiting factor. A 
cold front will then cross Wednesday bringing the potential for more 
widespread showers and storms. High pressure will build in late 
Thursday. Generally MVFR conditions in fog is expected this 
morning...followed by generally VFR. With diurnal heating this 
afternoon...there will be a few hour period with scattered 
storms...around 20z....with MVFR possible. This trend will continue 
for Sunday night through Tuesday...with IFR possible in and near 
storms. Generally VFR is expected for Thursday. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$