649 
fxus61 kbgm 061131 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
731 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak frontal boundary over the Middle Atlantic States will lift 
north, and dissipate today and tonight. Scattered showers and 
storms will rekindle again over northeast Pennsylvania, and maybe 
south central New York this afternoon. A weak upper level storm 
system will move east across the area on Monday, triggering 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire area. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
patchy fog is again across the area this morning. This should burn 
off by 13z. The thickest fog is across the southeast where the best 
moisture is. 


Warm front over the Mason-Dixon line will fall apart as it moves 
north later tonight and Sunday. Expect another round of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over northeast PA and possibly southern 
New York this afternoon as instability develops with daytime heating. 
Higher dewpoints... a little more cape... and a weakly coupled upper 
level jet pattern is also forecast... which should result in a 
little more coverage to the storms compared to what happened 
Saturday. Convective available potential energy around 500 j/kg and weak wind fields will result 
in any storms being of the pulse variety. Any cells that develop 
will be slow movers. Forecasted wind speeds under 20 kts. Heavy 
rain could anchor to the topography and cause minor flash 
flooding. Warnings not anticipated with high ffg and lack of 
significant rain the last few days. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/... 
rest of the short term similar to today. Mainly afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms. Weak SW wind fields. Moisture will 
slowly increase especially at the surface. It will feel more humid 
each day. Precipitable waters  rise above 1.5 inches so localized flash flooding 
will be a concern again. 


A weak upper level wave will move across the PA on Monday 
supplying the forcing. On Tuesday a short wave ahead of a slow 
moving cold front could set off more showers and ts. Best chances 
Tuesday will be in the west. Wind fields increase Tuesday to 20 
kts but little shear. Models soundings still show little forward 
movement under 10 kts. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 255 am...current extended in good shape with only a few 
minor tweaks made. 


Previous discussion... 
still not seeing many changes needed to extended portion of the forecast. 
Models agree on keeping troffiness in through the week with the best 
chance for rain ahead of cold front on Wednesday. Could be some lingering probability of precipitation drg 
the day Thursday as GFS is a little slow to mv trough out. However...have 
continued to keep Thursday dry by sticking with continuity. 




There is indication in GFS/Euro that the West Coast ridge will 
break down by the weekend with 500 mb ridging across East Coast for a 
time. This would keep most of the rain chances to our north after 
Thursday and have kept dry forecast through the end of the long term. After 
a brief cooldown following frontal passage on Wednesday have brought 
temperatures back above seasonal values for the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/... 
MVFR br will be present through approx 13z at avp before dissipating. 
Remaining terminals are VFR and will remain that way through the next 24 hours. 
Only high cirrus expected today...with a gradual increases in sky cover 
overnight but still expecting only mid-clouds. 


Cannot rule out the possibility of MVFR fog visibilities tonight at 
avp/Elm/ith as moisture creeps in but have left out of taf package 
at this time. 


Winds will be light/vrb a good part of the day but will gradually 
shift around to the S-southeast late this afternoon. 


Outlook... 


Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Isolated MVFR -tsra possible during each aftn/eve. 
Local IFR fog possible esply at kelm during late night/early am each day. 




Tuesday night through Wednesday night...chances increase for widespread rain/thunder 
beginning late Tuesday night and continuing into the day Wednesday 
ahead of an appchg cold front. 


Thursday...conds imprv to VFR. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...tac 
near term...mse/tac 
short term...tac 
long term...rrm 
aviation...pvb