675 
fxus66 kmfr 182057 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
157 PM PDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion...the region lies under high pressure this afternoon 
awaiting the subtle effects from an approaching weak offshore 
trough slated to arrive Saturday afternoon. The main concern has 
been thunderstorm potential for the south and east. 


Latest model runs have trended drier and more stable under south 
to southwest flow aloft as this trough comes in Saturday. Due to 
run-to-run inconsistencies...confidence has not trended toward the 
newest solutions and we are opting to leave the isolated/slight 
chance thunder in for Saturday afternoon...though we have decided 
to word things as dry. The trough axis remains over the area into 
Sunday with questionable change in the atmospheric profile as 
energy digs into a weak cutoff low off San Francisco. Looks like a 
somewhat favorable pattern...through the instability and moisture 
just may not cut it for storms to develop. Again...not enough 
confidence to change the pre-exiting forecast much...so have left 
the slight chance alone here too. More of the same for Monday. The 
Sat-Monday period should undergo a bit of a warming trend to above 
normal by several degrees. 


For Tuesday...a weak front will move inland and cool things down 
a bit back to near normal and we'll likely still be watching the 
effects of the slow-moving weak cutoff low moving inland over California. 
Forecast continues dry for now. 


Wednesday and beyond...warm and dry southwest flow aloft is 
advertised between a weak offshore trough and high pressure across 
The Rockies and plains. Stavish 


&& 


Aviation...similar trend as lately. MVFR ceilings are anticipated to 
return to the Coos coast and locally on the Curry coast after 03z 
tonight and prevail with some MVFR visibility north fog through the overnight 
and into early Sat. Clearing by around 18z Sat. VFR weather inland. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 2 PM 
PDT this afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning until 10 PM PDT Saturday for pzz356- 
pzz376. 
Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Saturday for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM PDT this 
afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 PM PDT Saturday for 
pzz350-pzz370. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM PDT Saturday 
for pzz350-pzz370. 


$$