280 
fxus66 kmfr 050927 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
227 am PDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...today and tonight...a weak disturbance is currently 
approaching the central Oregon coast. I have introduced a slight 
chance of precipitation today mainly for the southwest Oregon 
coast and Douglas County. While precipitation dynamics don't look 
great...satellite soundings indicate a 1.2 inch precipitable water 
core with this system and both the NAM and GFS models indicate a 
chance of light precipitation as the system sweeps eastward today. 


Sunday...saturdays disturbance moves eastward and a drier warmer 
atmosphere will start to build in from the west. Temperatures will 
run about 5 to 7 degrees above normal. 


Monday through Wednesday...a ridge of high pressure will build 
over the Pacific northwest with a strong surface thermal trough 
building along the northern California coast. Therefore...hot 
temperatures are expected inland and windy conditions will set 
up on the coast due to the thermal trough. Inland temperatures 
will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the Mercury likely to 
hit the century mark in southwest Oregon and northern California 
valleys all three days. 


Thursday and Friday...a dry trough will bring cooler...closer to 
seasonal...temperatures to the area by the end of the week. 




&& 


Aviation...along the coast and in the Umpqua basin...IFR 
conditions due to low ceilings and fog will continue over areas 
south of Cape Blanco. MVFR ceilings will persist through this 
morning north of Cape Blanco and may intrude into portions of the 
Umpqua basin. For other areas over southwest Oregon and northern 
California...VFR conditions will continue except smoke will limit 
visibilities in extreme western Siskiyou County. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...gale watch from Sunday afternoon through 
Wednesday afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 5 am to 5 PM PDT Sunday for 
pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday 
afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 am to 5 PM PDT 
Sunday for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM Sunday to 5 PM PDT 
Wednesday for pzz350-pzz370. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 PM Sunday to 5 PM 
PDT Wednesday for pzz350-pzz370. 


$$ 


Mwj