819 
fxus66 kmfr 181603 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
903 am PDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion...no morning update today. Morning discussions here 
have focused on thunderstorm threat over the weekend and the 
consensus is that the models have trended back on moisture and 
instability for Saturday and Sunday afternoon and hence our 
confidence has lowered. Models are inconsistent day-to-day though. 
There are still some factors in place to lend slight confidence 
toward an isolated thunderstorm or two in advance of incoming 
trough so we'll keep the mention in the forecast for areas south 
and east...but will trend mention to isolated dry Saturday...and 
keep slight chance Sunday. Stavish 


&& 


Aviation...marine layer into the coastal region with generally 
MVFR low clouds and fog except from Port Orford to Brookings where northerly 
downslope flow creates VFR. Expect prevailing VFR to develop by 
19z. VFR weather inland except MVFR and local IFR visibility through western 
Siskiyou County in smoke. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 2 PM 
PDT this afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT 
Saturday for pzz356-pzz376. 
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for 
pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM PDT this 
afternoon for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM 
PDT Saturday for pzz350-pzz370. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 PM this afternoon 
to 10 PM PDT Saturday for pzz350-pzz370. 


$$