277 
fxus65 kboi 052102 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...abundant subsidence across the forecast area in 
response to the strong wave and convective outbreak that crossed 
Montana last evening. Hence...convective activity has been 
suppressed today with only fair weather cumulus thus far. 
However...decided to keep a slight chance across the northern zones 
just in case the cumulus field over central Oregon gets going later 
this evening. Otherwise...Sunday appears to be the better day for 
convection with the models showing a short wave riding east across 
the area. Even then...have only painted slight chance across mainly 
the northern mountain zones. Temperatures very comfortable today 
through Sunday night as heights and thicknesses remain suppressed 
over the region and a westerly flow versus a southwest flow 
dominates the area. 


Long term...Monday night through Saturday...models in decent 
agreement early in the extended period with keeping the region under 
the influence of the northeast edge of an upper level ridge. This 
will create above normal temperatures...and dry stable weather 
across the region through the first half of the extended. Upper 
level ridging will begin to flatten on Thursday...ahead of an upper 
level shortwave trough...prognosticated to move into the region 
Friday/Saturday. Models differ in the handling of this system...but 
agree that the bulk of moisture and instability will remain north of 
the region. For now have maintained previous forecast of slight 
chance of probability of precipitation...mainly in the northern mountain zones...and 
slightly cooler temperatures across the region. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue across the region tonight. 
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the central mountains of 
Idaho through 03z. Gusty winds in vicinity of thunderstorms. Light 
surface winds with gusts up to 22kts...mainly east of kmuo. Light to 
moderate west-southwest winds aloft. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...gs 
long term....sl/dd 
aviation.....Sl