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fxus64 ktsa 201134 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
634 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Discussion... 




&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR visibility in light fog or haze kxna kfyv kfsm until 1430z. 
VFR balance of the day. After 06z tonight MVFR visibility in 
haze once again kxna kfyv kfsm. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 240 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
thickening middle-level clouds noted from northwestern OK into western MO...although 
no radar echoes are detected at this time. Majority of 00z guidance 
show depict a weak middle-level shear axis across the area today...and 
wouldn/T be surprised to see an isolated shower or 
thunderstorm...especially in the favored terrain areas. Coverage 
should remain too sparse to mention in the forecast however. 


Otherwise...the upper ridge will remain firmly in control...with 
temperatures gradually creeping toward the century mark over the 
next few days. The mav guidance continues to look just bit too 
warm...and will continue to stick close to the met guidance. 


00z European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Gem dip a weak frontal boundary near far northestern OK/northwestern 
Arkansas by late Tuesday into Wednesday...which may bring an increase in 
isolated diurnally driven convection across far eastern OK/western Arkansas. Upper 
high forecast to strengthen later this week...with a hot and dry 
weekend shaping up. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10 
fsm 98 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 
mlc 97 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 
bvo 96 71 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 
fyv 91 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 
byv 93 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 10 
mko 94 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 10 
Mio 93 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 
f10 95 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 10 
hhw 95 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...05 
long term....05 
aviation...21