560 
fxus64 ktsa 212319 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
519 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm. 
For the 0z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 
forecast period. Midlevel clouds will slowly erode in western 
Arkansas overnight. Otherwise... mostly clear skies and light surface 
winds are expected areawide. 






&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 314 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
low clouds from this morning have given way to sun in most areas 
and has turned into a lovely fall afternoon. Easterly flow has 
begun to bring lower dew points in and this should alleviate the 
threat of widespread fog tonight. South winds have kicked up to 
the west this afternoon but no significant change anticipated to 
the surface gradient...and this should allow temperatures to drop into the 
low-middle 40s most places. A fast moving middle level wave will bring 
an increase in middle and high clouds Sunday...but otherwise another 
warm and dry afternoon. 


Stronger upper system still expected to impact the region early 
next week...mostly late Monday and early Tuesday. Models continue 
to lack consistency with the strength and timing but a general 
consensus seems to be tracking the upper low to the north across 
the Central Plains...with associated surface cold front through the 
area Monday evening and pushing east Tuesday morning. Moisture 
return ahead of the system is a little questionable but likely 
enough given the dynamic nature of the system to eke out a band of 
showers and a few thunderstorms near the front. Dry conditions 
with breezy northwest winds expected Tuesday with temperatures trending 
closer to seasonal norms thereafter. 


A second upper wave is expected to drop into the developing 
longwave trough to our east late in the week with a reinforcing 
shot of cool air for Thanksgiving day. This gives the area a good 
shot at a widespread freeze...especially by Friday morning. Dry 
with warming trend for next Saturday as upper flow becomes more 
zonal. 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Aviation...06