281 
fxus64 ktsa 052011 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
311 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
morning convection has drifted into northern Arkansas...with other scattered showers 
noted across eastern Kansas. Sustained afternoon heating and presence of 
southeastward moving mesoscale convective vortex currently over southeastern Kansas should support additional 
thunderstorms into the evening hours along the instability axis that 
stretches from NE OK into western Arkansas. Will take a last look at radar 
trends before deciding on first period probability of precipitation. 


Warmer and drier conditions are expected for Sunday/Monday as the 
upper level ridge strengthens across the region. Mav numbers 
continue to look too warm on afternoon highs...and will continue to 
undercut them a few degrees. 


Longer range models continue to suggest a weakness in the upper 
ridging/modest northwesterly flow developing around mid-week. A weak front is 
expected to sag into the area by Wednesday...linger for a day or 
two...then dissipate or lift north by the end of the week. There remains 
some uncertainty as too how far S any boundary will make it (typical 
for this time of year)...but chance probability of precipitation are at least 
warranted...with best chances running from Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. 


Upper ridge will build back in late in the week and into next 
weekend...with more seasonal temperatures in store. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 75 96 77 94 / 20 0 10 10 
fsm 70 94 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 
mlc 72 95 74 94 / 20 0 10 10 
bvo 68 95 71 94 / 20 0 10 10 
fyv 67 90 69 90 / 30 0 10 10 
byv 68 91 70 89 / 30 0 10 10 
mko 70 93 72 93 / 20 0 10 10 
Mio 68 94 73 93 / 30 0 10 10 
f10 73 94 73 93 / 20 0 10 10 
hhw 72 95 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...21 
long term....18