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fxus61 kcle 201336 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
936 am EDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
a front will remain nearly stationary over the lower part of the 
Great Lakes into Monday. A wave of low pressure will move along the 
front into New York by Monday night pulling the front southeast 
across our area. High pressure will spread over the lower Great 
Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
remnants of a convective complex over Wisconsin continue to drift 
through the forecast area with a fair amount of cloud cover 
overspreading the area. Where clouds are thinner across southern 
and central Ohio...have started to see some stronger storms 
develop. Through the afternoon hours I still expect the cloud 
cover to be on the decrease and showers and thunderstorms to re-develop 
overhead...perhaps a few hours later than previously thought due 
to early morning cloud cover. All models continue to show abundant 
instability across the entire forecast area today and I bumped up 
probability of precipitation to likely across the board. Still think high winds would be the 
primary threat with any storms and will retain damaging wind 
wording in the text/grids. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/... 
first of a series of weak and diffuse cold fronts gets pulled southeast 
through the area tonight with more noticeable temperature and dewpoint 
front now on track to move through late Monday afternoon/evening. 
With the presence of the front tonight and instability axis moving 
through will up probability of precipitation in the west to bump into chance category which 
should match up better with other offices. Just a few tweaks for 
Monday as current forecast seems reasonable with the better chance 
in the southern half of the area. Continued chance Monday night as 
second front moves slowly southeast of our area. Slight to small chance 
still looks okay for southeast on Tuesday as upper trough over area may provide 
enough instability to create some convective precipitation on lingering 
moisture there. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
general northwest flow pattern should persist. High pressure builds 
southeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday. The high will likely 
slide east of the area on Thursday. Models...especially the 
GFS...have been consistent with next cold front on Friday. Limited 
time to get deep moisture/Gulf inflow and a lot of heat back ahead 
of the front. Timing of the frontal passage and the ability to 
develop convection would be key for rain chances. Will call it a 
"chance" in the forecast for now. Another high pressure area from 
Canada should build south across the Great Lakes next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/... 
complex of thunderstorms from overnight working across Northwest Ohio and 
weakening but may not totally dissipate...in fact...they may 
regenerate by late morning/afternoon but should be mainly east of 
the forecast area by that time. Enough boundary layer moisture that 
MVFR cumulus will likely develop this morning. Weak surface low 
sliding NE along the stationary front across central Great Lakes 
and expect more storms to regenerate this afternoon as instability 
increases. The exception might be at eri where subsidence behind 
the early morning system and a lake breeze may protect the 
immediate Lakeshore. 


Outlook...cold front will drop southeast across the area tonight. 
Believe that subsidence behind the afternoon thunderstorms will inhibit 
any new activity. Some MVFR fog/haze will likely occur until drier 
air can begin to filter into the area which might not be until 
Monday morning. Drying out Monday and VFR conditions should return 
as high pressure builds in right through middle week. 


&& 


Marine... 
stationary front still north of the lake. Wind somewhat variable and 
affected by convective showers/storms early this morning as well as 
a weak surface low near The Thumb of Michigan. The low will slide east-northeast 
along the front and should gradually bring wind back around to the 
SW. Next surface wave of low pressure over Wisconsin should also 
slide east-northeast. South-southwest flow may be enhanced somewhat today and waves may get 
choppy in the open waters especially on the east end of the lake. 


Cold front should begin to push southeast across the lake as surface wave 
moves east of the lake tonight. Could be a period of time late 
tonight into Monday when wind comes around from the west-northwest and pressure 
builds enough to approach Small Craft Advisory conditions. Small 
craft operators will have to be alert for storms today and the 
potential for small craft conditions later tonight and Monday. 


Surface high builds south across the Great Lakes Tuesday into 
Wednesday. Gradient should weaken by middle week and return south-southeast flow 
should develop late in the week. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Adams 
near term...leins 
short term...Adams 
long term...kosarik 
aviation...kosarik 
marine...kosarik