674 
fxus61 kcle 051113 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
713 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a stationary front near the Ohio River will dissipate over the 
weekend as weak high pressure remains over lower Michigan and 
southwest Ontario. A warm front will approach the area from the 
west on Monday with the cold front moving through Tuesday night. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
upper trough across the region today and stalled and weakening 
surface frontal boundary just south of the Ohio River. High 
pressure resides across the Great Lakes. Majority of the cloud 
cover will be across the southeast. A very small chance of a 
shower today across southeast tier of counties with a weak 
inverted trough extending up through western PA. Will a little 
less cloud cover today than yesterday...temperatures to be a handful of 
degrees warmer...generally upper 70s. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/... 
dry weather continues tonight. Temperatures seasonable. Sunday 
models indicate an increase in moisture and therefore convective available potential energy across 
eastern areas with a similar situation as today. GFS paints light 
quantitative precipitation forecast and would favor an increase in probability of precipitation to chance category...but 
European model (ecmwf) and to some degree the NAM begin to pull middle level trough 
out of here by then. Have kept the slight chance rain showers/ts chances 
across the east-southeast. Add a couple more degrees for highs and by Monday 
area should be in the middle 80s. Some guidance suggesting middle/upper 
80s by Sunday and upper 80/around 90 by Monday...but would like to 
see the ridge a little stronger for these temperatures. Chance of rain showers/ts 
areawide Tuesday and Tuesday night as Midwest cold front 
approaches. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
models still showing a cold front moving through early on Wednesday 
followed by weak high pressure building over the area Wednesday 
night. The high then moves east of the area on Friday. Will 
continue with the previous forecast with a chance of 
showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday...then dry or just chance probability of precipitation 
into Friday. Trended down a little with temperature forecast through 
the period though not quite as low as the new mosguid was showing. 


&& 


Aviation /11z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
areas mainly MVFR br through about 14z then VFR weather expected 
for the rest of the day and early tonight. Wave moving along a 
front south of Ohio will provide scattered-broken cumulus over southern areas 
during the day. Precipitation with this wave and front should stay south 
of the area. Areas of mainly MVFR br developing again tonight. 


Outlook...areas of MVFR fog lingering Sunday morning. Otherwise 
VFR during the day Sunday and then more patchy MVFR br Sunday 
night. VFR clouds Monday increasing ahead of a short wave that 
will move through Monday night and cause a threat of showers and 
thunderstorms and possibly some non VFR conditions. A cold front 
that will move through the area Wednesday which will cause some 
non VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
not expecting winds or waves to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria 
of the next few day. NE winds 10 to 15 knots today with waves 
generally 2 to 3 foot range. Weak high pressure over the area today 
will move off to the east on Sunday. A southerly flow will develop 
Monday as next front will be moving into the upper Midwest. The wind 
gradient tightens some Tuesday as low pressure develops along the 
front and will be moving toward the Central Lakes by midweek. The 
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday. The 
cold front will move south of Lake Erie by Wednesday and then 
followed by another high pressure. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...oudeman 
near term...oudeman 
short term...oudeman 
long term...randel 
aviation...randel 
marine...randel