497 
fxus61 Kiln 201310 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
910 am EDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
waves of low pressure will continue to move across the Great 
Lakes into Monday. The last of these systems will cause a cold 
front to push southeast across the area tomorrow. Unsettled 
weather will continue through Tuesday evening as an upper level 
trough become established over the region. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
sunshine in the clear air ahead of an initial boundary has started 
to spark convection along it...fairly quickly over Hardin Colorado. At this time 
it does not appear to be severe but update is being sent to 
indicate higher chances of thunderstorms today as a boundary can 
be noted Alabama the way SW through County Warning Area towards Louisville. Think that 
showers and storms will pop on that. Morning sounding had decent 
instability and strong lapse rates to indicate the increased 
potential for damaging winds in these storms. It was not overly 
favorable for hail however. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... 
uncertainties in convective evolution in the near term just 
multiply with time leading to low confidence regarding 
probability of storms as well as timing and location. 


At this point it appears that convection during the day may 
continue into the evening especially across southern zones before 
diminishing/moving out of the forecast area. The next chance of 
showers and thunderstorms will come on Monday mainly in the 
afternoon. However 00z UKMET and European model (ecmwf) continue to suggest that 
the better chances of rain will hold off until Monday night and 
Tuesday particularly in the southern zones as a significant short 
wave swings southeastward into the base of the developing upper 
trough. Have tailored the forecast towards this scenario. 


Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday night. But 
readings are expected to be suppressed on Tuesday by clouds and 
precipitation. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
some showers and thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday evening. 
But otherwise drier weather will push into the region for 
Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the north. 
Models have consistently been forecasting a short wave to move 
across the area on Friday. So expect a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms then. After it passes the high will be reestablished 
for Saturday. Expect temperatures closer to seasonal normals 
through the period. 


&& 


Aviation /13z Sunday through Thursday/... 
a frontal boundary was stretched out west to east across the southern 
Great Lakes. 


Through 15z...a disturbance will bring scattered convection to areas 
mainly north of I-70. The best chance of a storm will be at kday 12z- 
14z. 


After 15z...instability will persist...although uncertain storm coverage 
warrants just vcsh/cumulonimbus at this time through 23z-01z. Light winds 
will increase after 18z to SW around 12 kts with slightly higher 
gusts through 00z. 


MVFR visibilities will settle in after 08z...with IFR likely at kluk. 


Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...franks 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation...