783 
fxus61 kcle 051954 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
354 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a stationary front south of the Ohio Valley will dissipate. High 
pressure was over the eastern Great Lakes and will move off the 
East Coast. The cool and dry northeast flow will become warmer and 
more humid from the south. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
cumulus field over NE Ohio/northwest PA will diminish this evening but one or 
two pop up showers possible late this afternoon/very early evening. 
Drier air slowly filtering in as northeast flow continues and am 
inclined to leave out mention of shower in early evening forecast since 
coverage will be so small...less than 10 percent coverage. Threat 
would mainly be Crawford County PA where lake breeze would intersect 
with higher Theta-E field. 


With dewpoints continuing to drop and clear/mainly clear skies and 
light winds will opt toward lower guidance min temperature forecast guidance 
which is the GFS MOS...generally in the 50s. A nice night for 
sleeping. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/... 
ridge prognosticated to build along the East Coast which throws the higher 
moisture/Theta-E field back to the west and northwest. Return flow 
develops in the lower levels as surface high slides east and dry 
Northeast Boundary layer flow becomes more southerly so instability 
and shower threat will slowly increase the next couple of days. Am 
optimistic for a mainly rain free Sunday as flow will be downslope 
southeast which should keep shower threat minimal and indeed BUFKIT 
soundings do not show much cape so the showers that do bubble up 
should be less than 20 percent coverage and mainly east of I-77. 
Lake breeze is likely along the immediate Lakeshore but not enough 
deep moisture for anything other than an isolated brief shower. 


Temperatures will be on the rise but based on upstream temperatures and model 
thermal fields...not quite as warm as temperature guidance 
Sunday...generally lower and middle 80s. 


Cold front pressing southeast across the upper Midwest will make 
slow progress. Heat will build up over the nations middle section and 
ring-of-fire thunderstorms will build up in addition to the pre frontal 
showers/storms. First round of showers/storms could get close to 
Northern Ohio/northwest PA Monday night. Better chance on Tuesday although 
front will likely be well north of the area but some sort of outflow 
or prefrontal trough will likely advance across the lower Great 
Lakes. 


Temperatures should warm to the middle and upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. Not 
as confident Tuesday...if clouds and showers/storms develop early 
enough in the day...temperatures could be a few degrees cooler...but will 
keep it warm for now. Humidity/dewpoints will be up by Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
forecast models still holding onto active cold front over the 
central Great Lakes which expected move into Ohio late Tuesday night 
or early Wednesday. 


Expect showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday night through 
Wednesday afternoon. Weak high pressure to build across the forecast 
area Wednesday evening through Friday. Expect temperatures to to 
average near the seasonal normals. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
for this afternoon look for VFR conds as high pressure dominates 
for the next couple of days. Some patchy fog can be expected 
tonight and more VFR conds Sunday under a developing southerly 
flow. 


Outlook...VFR conds Monday under southwest flow as increasing 
clouds reach the forecast area ahead of a cold front. Look for a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms and possibly some non VFR 
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will build into 
the forecast area Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move off the 
East Coast on Sunday. A southerly flow will develop by Monday as 
next front will be moving into the northern Great Lakes. The wind 
gradient tightens somewhat on Tuesday as low pressure develops 
along the front and will be moving toward the central and lower 
lakes by Wednesday morning. The chance for showers and 
thunderstorms will return on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The 
cold front will move south of Lake Erie by Wednesday afternoon and 
then followed by another high pressure Thursday and Friday. 




&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wsf/kosarik 
near term...kosarik 
short term...kosarik 
long term...British Columbia 
aviation...British Columbia 
marine...British Columbia