729 
fxus61 Kiln 211442 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
942 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will slowly move off to the northeast...but continue 
to extend back into the Ohio Valley through early next week. A 
cold front will approach the area from the west on Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
stratus deck NE of forecast area will hang tough as center of the high 
pressure system settles over Ohio this afternoon...keeping the 
axis of cooler air along a northwest/southeast bisection of the state. Area of 
stratus running from cincy metropolitan area northwest into Richmond and ecntl 
Indiana should erode fairly quickly this morning as the atmosphere 
mixes a bit. 


High temperatures were close to the thickness supported at 21z from the 
NAM this morning so there were little changes other than to tweak 
cloud cover and lower dewpoints over much of County Warning Area. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/... 
high pressure will move off to the northeast with the ridge axis 
still lingering into the region through Monday. Initial short 
wave lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday will 
stay suppressed well south of the forecast area. Subsequent short 
wave on Monday will be further north. This combined with return 
flow on the backside of the surface ridge could result in a few 
showers Monday into Monday night. At this point only felt slight 
chance probability of precipitation were warranted. Generally went slightly below guidance 
for lows tonight and Sunday night but then clouds should keep 
readings warmer Monday night. Highs will be several degrees above 
normal both Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
00z GFS...gefs and Canadian were in good agreement with the 
progression of the next cold front with the 00z European model (ecmwf) being a slow 
outlier. Went with model consensus which brings a chance of 
showers to the region by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front 
which is forecast to cross the area on Tuesday night. By Wednesday 
night the 00z European model (ecmwf) comes in line with the other models. There 
will be a further chance of showers as a secondary cold front 
approaches and then moves through the region on Thanksgiving. Post 
frontal showers may linger into Thursday night in cold cyclonic 
flow. Late Thursday into Thursday night there may be enough cold 
air for some snow showers. Low level ridge builds in on Friday 
bringing a drier but cool day. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure will continue to influence the area. Fog will burn 
off this morning. Satellite shows area of stratocumulus across 
Indiana and western Ohio. This will edge into kluk and Kiln taf 
sites and therefore have put in tempo MVFR ceilings. Expect a return 
to VFR by 15z. Cumulus will stick around during the afternoon hours and 
dissipate around sunset. Expect fog development across western taf 
sites for Sunday morning. Some high clouds will begin to spill 
over from system to the south. 


Outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...franks 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation...Novak