641 
fxus61 Kiln 051106 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
706 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
frontal boundary near the Ohio River will sag a little south 
through Sunday...with mainly afternoon widely scattered showers 
becoming less numerous this afternoon and again on Sunday. The 
entire region will dry out Sunday night into the first part of 
Monday...as weak high pressure controls the weather. The chance 
for showers and thunderstorms will return later on Monday as 
moisture increases in the southerly flow ahead of a front 
approaching from the northwest. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
upper level flow becomes northwesterly as energy drops down 
into the Ohio Valley. Frontal boundary draped near the Ohio 
River to drop a little south today. However...lingering low level 
moisture will lead to moderate instability across the southeast half of forecast area this afternoon. 
And as upper level support comes into play...low level convergence 
will become favorable. Due to this weak forcing and instability have 
basically continued slight chance/chance probability of precipitation over the southeast half of forecast area with 
the highest probability of precipitation east. Temperature wise...have trended highs a little below 
mav guidance today. 


Upped min temperatures a degree or so. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
upper low to briefly close off over Ohio late tonight into Sunday. 
Expect forcing to diminish and with loss of heating have lingering 
probability of precipitation ending in the evening. Otherwise...expect skies to become 
partly cloudy tonight. Have generally trended overnight temperatures between 
mav and met guidance values. 


Upper low opens up and shifts east on Sunday. With very weak forcing 
and moderate instability indicated by numerical models have added a slight 
chance of thunder over the far east Sunday afternoon. Have continued trend going 
a little below mav high temperature guidance. 


Flow becomes move zonal with low level flow becoming srly on Monday. 
Numerical model solution/S indicating a slower trend with return of 
showers and thunderstorms. Have slowed down the chance to the west during 
Monday afternoon but if this trend continues may be able to go dry during the 
daytime hours. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
Tuesday will be the warmest in this period as 800 mb air around 19-20 
degree gets pumped in and warmed with ample sunshine...a little less 
with increasing cloud cover Tuesday. Clouds on Tuesday are ahead of a 
system that will cross through the ohvly from northwest-southeast overnight and 
early on Wednesday. An isolated late day thunderstorm may occur in the 
increasingly unstable air ahead of the front...but the better 
chances for rain will occur as the front gets over the region 
around 12z Wednesday. 


Drier air and high pressure will filter quickly back into the region 
Wednesday night. Felt that MOS and HPC guidance did not cool off Wednesday 
enough (only 1-2 degree from previous highs) and then brought things 
back to above normal too quickly on Thursday and Friday. If sky cover on 
Thursday is clear than the guidance will be close. However...Friday is 
showing some embedded S/ws moving through the mean upper level 
westerlies with ohvly under the apex of a mean albeit very broad 
troffiness pattern. This would limit high temperatures Friday and increase a 
chance of showery activity. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
expect ceilings and visibilities currently as low as LIFR to 
improve to VFR by 14z. Winds will remain out of the northeast at 
under 10 knots. Light winds will allow VFR ceilings to stay intact 
through most of the taf period. Visibilities will likely drop to 
MVFR after 04z at cvg luk and iln. 


Outlook...MVFR visibilities are expected Sunday morning. 
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Arkansas 
near term...Arkansas 
short term...Arkansas 
long term...franks 
aviation...coniglio