637 
fxus61 Kiln 160631 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
231 am EDT Thursday Oct 16 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will move from the Midwest to the Great Lakes region 
this evening...and a cold front will cross the Ohio Valley in its 
wake tonight with showers found along it. High pressure will then 
build over the upper Midwest and strengthen as it moves to the 
Ohio Valley on Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
surface low will track just northwest of the forecast area tonight 
with upper level support in the form of a short wave and vorticity maximum 
skirting along the I-70 corridor. Best forcing will be over this 
region and likely probability of precipitation were warranted tonight. NAM and NGM are 
suggesting that the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of forecast area may stay dry with 
frontal passage tonight since the forcing will not be located at this 
region. Thought that at least scattered precipitation will be found 
across the entire cold front tonight. Temperatures last night were 
on the warm side across the region and I ended up bumping a few 
degree higher for tonights lows. 


Upper support appears limited to the northern 1/3 of County Warning Area and I did not 
feel that thunderstorms will be norm...though an isolated strike 
or two cant be ruled out. Left mention out as very few strikes 
were seen upstream. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Friday night/... 
numerical guidance is showing near steady temperatures through the day 
and I was not able to stretch tonights lows with tomorrows highs 
that thin...though I think it is very possible. Feel that a 4-5 
degree diurnal is more likely than the 7-10 that are presented in the 
forecast...but I was not confident that temperatures wouldn't recover a 
little bit on Thursday. 


Cooler temperatures aloft will linger cloudy skies through the period 
with some sunny breaks beginning on Friday. Some cloud cover 
overnight both Thursday and Friday should put a limit on low temperatures from 
dropping to where frost may form. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
partly cloudy skies will accompany high pressure on Saturday and 
Sunday. A few more showers may break out along a cold front as it 
moves through on Monday...though stronger forcing is prognosticated to 
remain northeast of the region. Cool high pressure will return for 
next Tuesday. 


Temperatures will generally be on the cool side of normal over the 
weekend. A rebound to just above normal is forecast for Monday 
ahead of the cold front...before cooler readings revisit on 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... a cold front will 
a cold front extends from west of cvg to day to northwest of cmh. Front is 
moving east and should move through cvg 08z and cmh 09z. Widely 
scattered light showers expected ahead of front with patchy light 
rain behind front. Winds will switch from SW at 10 to northwest at 10 
behind front. Winds should gust to 15 to 20 with passage of front. 
MVFR ceiling with passage of front and lowering to IFR 2 to 3 hours 
after frontal passage. Ceilings improving to MVFR as dry air begins 
to move into the area after sunrise, conditins becoming VFR 
between 15 and 16z. Clouds will generally decrease throughout the 
day and become clear by evening. 


Outlook...no significant weather expected through Monday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...franks 
near term...franks 
short term...franks 
long term... 
aviation...