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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
802 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2008 


Synopsis... 
moisture from the remains of Fay will be drawn northward into the 
region late tonight and Thursday...before dissipating Thursday 
night. A cold front will quickly follow later Friday with a 
renewed shower and isolated thunderstorm threat. High pressure 
will then gradually build eastward and provide glorious weather 
for the Labor Day weekend with clearing skies Saturday followed by 
full sunshine Sunday and Labor Day Monday along with seasonably 
warm temperatures. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
northward progression of precipitation over eastern Ohio and extreme western 
PA is slowing and being shunted off to the northwest late this 
afternoon. NAM and GFS still at odds as to where the bulk of this 
tropical remnant precipitation will end up as it moves into western 
New York...but is appears most likely that the southwestern corner of the 
state will see some precipitation late this evening and the western third 
of the state will be overspread with light rain Thursday morning and 
continue through much of the day. GFS quantitative precipitation forecast looked too aggressive with 
nearly an inch total rainfall over the southern tier to the middle 
Genesee Valley between 12z and 21z...but the overall idea of 
concentrating the precipitation in this area looks good. Shaved back on the 
GFS quantitative precipitation forecast with a blend of GFS and NAM quantitative precipitation forecast...and brought likely probability of precipitation 
northward from the southern tier to middle Genesee Valley with 
chance probability of precipitation to the northern Finger Lakes. Blocking high pressure 
should limit the northeast extent of the precipitation to the northeastern 
Finger Lakes with little or no chance of rain over the Eastern Lake 
Ontario region. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/... 
some lingering moisture from remains of Fay will be present Thursday 
evening...most notably over upper Genesee Valley and Finger 
Lakes...but this should tend to erode as the night wears on. 
Clouds will linger into Friday although the bulk of the day 
should be dry as we will be between systems. Attention then turns 
to the west as a cold front will approach and cross the area Friday 
nt. Models are in good agreement and a few hours faster than in 
earlier runs...which bodes well for Saturday (see below). In the 
meantime...front will not have much dynamics or instability to 
work with so will leave probability of precipitation in high chance range for its passage. 
Skies may clear toward daybreak Sat in west. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
its been awhile since we faced such a long uninterrupted period of 
fine Summer weather (5 days) and timing looks great for the Holiday 
weekend. The only possible glitch will be Saturday morning...but 
even that outlook continues to improve with faster timing of cold 
frontal passage. Front looks to be into eastern New York by Sat morning but 
we may have some lingering cloud in morning...especially 
east...but look for increasing sunshine as the day wears on as 
high pressure begins to build in from the west. Airmass is not that 
cool behind the front as 850 mb temperatures are in 12-14c range so 
temperatures should rebound into seasonable mid to upper 70s. 


The rest of the Labor Day weekend continues to looks like a solid 
lock with massive high pressure cresting over the Great Lakes 
region. Look for full sunshine both sun and Monday with 850 mb temperatures 
of 13-14c supporting near 80 sun and l80s Monday. High slides off to 
our east Tuesday and Wednesday with strong upper ridge holding close... 
still dry...sunny and even warmer with 850 mb temperatures of 16-17c 
supporting mid to upper 80s. Enjoy. 


&& 


Aviation /00z tonight through Monday/... 
VFR through this evening and much of the night...then rain moving 
up across the southern tier late overnight and across the rest of 
the western third of the state Thursday morning. Expect VFR 
conditions to prevail even within the broad area of precipitation...with 
the exception of occasional MVFR across the southern tier 
counties for part of Thursday. 


Outlook... 
Friday...VFR. Chance of shwrs/tstms. 
Saturday...mainly VFR. Chance 
showers/thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario through 18z. 
Sunday...VFR. 
Monday...VFR 


&& 


Marine... 
no headlines are expected through early next week. 


East to southeast winds tonight under 15 knots will persist 
through Thursday...then gradually veering to south Friday. Winds 
will shift to westerly Saturday and freshen up following a cold 
front. They'll lighten up again Sunday into early next week...and 
remain well below small craft thresholds. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...sfm 
near term...wch 
short term...sfm 
long term...sfm 
aviation...apb/wch 
marine...sfm/wch