843 
fxus61 kbgm 081924 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
324 PM EDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Synopsis... 
an upper level storm system over southern Canada will bring a few 
showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening. The storm will 
move east of the area on Saturday... then another storm will move 
southeast toward the area on Sunday... bringing another round of 
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 10 PM this evening/... 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist 
across the area into this evening as the upper low over the 
northeast U.S. Moves slowly east of the area. Storms expected to 
remain mostly below severe limits... but can't completely rule out 
one or 2 large hail reports in the next few hours. Lack of cape 
will continue to be the limiting factor... with values generally 
less than 500 j/kg. Activity will diminish rapidly around sunset 
with patchy fog developing in areas that get a shower during the 
next few hours. Skies will become partly cloudy in most areas once 
the sun sets. 


&& 


Short term /10 PM this evening through Sunday night/... 
Saturday is shaping up to be a dry day with a good deal of 
sunshine in between systems. Went with high temperatures mainly 
between 70 and 75 based on full mixing from 850 mb. 


Clouds will overspread the area Saturday night ahead of the next 
unseasonably cool system digging southeast toward our area from 
the upper Great Lakes. Model consensus indicates a period of 
showers with some embedded thunder late Saturday night and Sunday 
morning. Unseasonably strong cold pool overhead Sunday afternoon 
will likely trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms 
during the afternoon and evening. Storms will diminish Sunday 
night with loss of heating. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
long wave pattern continues to show a trough over the eastern US 
which generally means cooler than normal temperatures and showers 
as short-wave disturbances move through the trough. Uncertainty 
continues on the timing and positioning of these features. Followed 
HPC guide with chance of showers and possible thunderstorms each day and 
highs in the middle 70s and lows in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
variable conditions with sites ranging from IFR to VFR due to 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain across the area. Generally 
ceilings are MVFR. Rain showers will diminish tonight with stratus likely 
particularly kbgm and krme areas as low level moisture continues 
to upslope into the hills with the west to northwest flow. 


Saturday...morning MVFR ceilings becoming VFR by late morning with 
isolated rain showers possible during the afternoon...best chance ksyr and krme 
areas. 


Outlook... 


Saturday night...becoming MVFR after midnight with scattered rain showers 
as next low pressure system moves in. 


Sunday...scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with MVFR/isolated IFR restrictions. 


Sunday night...lingering rain showers with MVFR stratus developing... 
except at avp which should remain VFR. 


Monday-Tuesday...afternoon rain showers may bring some restrictions each 
day...wtih MVFR stratus/fog possible Monday night at cny sites. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...djp/mse 
near term...mse 
short term...mse 
long term...bmw 
aviation...bmw