593 
fxus61 kbgm 051049 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
649 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a front will slowly lift north through Pennsylvania and New York 
this weekend. This will keep the chance for scattered or isolated 
showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast each 
day...especially over northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills of New 
York. Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values 
over the weekend. The unsettled weather pattern will continue with 
mainly daytime showers and storms into at least Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
nearly stalled front in the middle Atlantic with showers near but not 
in County Warning Area for now. A short wave and ul trough in eastern Ohio will slowly 
move east helping more moisture and weak dynamics get into NE PA 
and Catskills of New York and maybe southern tier this afternoon. With weak wind 
fields, almost all under 20 kts, under 500 mb storms will be slow 
movers. Some threat of flooding but still low chances due to the 
last few drier than normal weeks. Precipitable waters  rise to around one and a 
quarter. Dewpoints rise into l60s today and m60s Sunday. Skinny 
cape with stable middle levels. Only a little low level instability 
with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Any ts that do form will need 
orographic help. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/... 
ul trough sharpens but does not make much progress east during this 
period. Instead of the short waves oriented west to east they wil 
become north to south. Mainly afternoon showers and maybe a few ts 
will develop each day. The most likely location will be NE PA and 
Catskills New York but the area will slowly shift north as the surface front 
moves slowly north. Saturated atmosphere to continue with precipitable waters  
going over 1.5 inches. Still weak wind fields but a slow increase 
in speeds. Also like today skinny convective available potential energy with marginal low and middle 
level instability. 


Will follow the faster Euro GFS scenarios. These models are faster 
than NAM and give US a better chance of precipitation Sunday with the ul 
trough moving through PA...then again Tuesday and Wednesday with another 
front. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
zonal upper level pattern will prevail through middle week then some 
lowering of heights and weak troffiness by late week. Maximum temperatures 
will range in the low/middle 80s Tuesday/Wednesday then cool slightly with Wednesday 
frontal passage into the middle/upper 70s on Thursday/Friday. 


Frontal passage appears most likely on Wednesday with probability of precipitation highest here and 
chance/slight chc, Tuesday/Tuesday night/Wednesday night. Rain free conditions 
likely on Thursday and Friday...as surface high pressure from the upper 
Great Lakes builds in. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
fog at kelm/kavp will burn off by 13z. For all terminals but kavp, rest 
of day will be VFR with scattered middle clouds along with high 
clouds. At kavp, MVFR showers may pass through by the way 13z-16z. Ceilings 
at kavp will generally be broken around 4k feet. 


Overnight, expect mainly high clouds again with visibility restrictions 
developing after 06z at kith/kavp/kelm. For now included MVFR at 
kith/kavp and IFR at kelm. 


Winds through period 5 knots or less. 


Outlook... 


Mon/Tue/Wed...VFR. Isolated MVFR -tsra possible during aftn/eve. Local IFR 
fog possible esply at kelm during late night/early am each day. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...tac 
near term...tac 
short term...tac 
long term...rrm 
aviation...rrm