106 
fxus61 kbgm 181810 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
210 PM EDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Synopsis... 
hot and humid weather will prevail today...with the potential for 
isolated thunderstorms across upstate New York. A weak front will 
drop south into central New York on Saturday afternoon...providing 
a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will 
lift back north on Sunday as low pressure moves into the eastern 
Great Lakes. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will 
continue into Monday as this system moves through the area. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for some of our northern 
and eastern zones. Scattered storms are firing near Lake Ontario 
convergence zone. Little else in the way of forcing at this 
juncture...so still feel storms will be isolated to scattered in 
nature. As said earlier though...given developing instability 
(mixed layer convective available potential energy around 1500 as of 1 pm) and some deeper-layered 
shear...any storms that develop will have to be monitored for 
severe potential. 


Otherwise...near-term temperature and sky cover grids were tweaked 
a bit and this afternoon's maximum temperatures were lowered by a 
degree or two in most places. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
weak boundary will drop southward into central New York after pssg of the shortwave. 
Given this pattern...really can't rule out convection at any time. 
For now played 20 probability of precipitation northern zones with this boundary later tonight. This 
feature should provide a focus for more concentrated development on Sat 
afternoon. Again preferred the NAM depiction of this boundary...which 
favored chance probability of precipitation across the twin tiers...and slight chance elsewhere. 
Expect slightly cooler maxes NE zones (srn tug...western Mohawk vly) on 
Sat afternoon. 


Boundary will lift northeastward on late Sat night into Sunday as low pressure 
tracks into the eastern gtlakes ahead of sharpening upper trough. Cold front 
extending south from this low should get into western zones around daybreak 
Monday. Chance probability of precipitation looked appropriate for sun and Sun night. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
upper level trough over the NE US and southeast Canada deepens as a short 
wave moves slowly east from Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday. At 
the start of the extended a coastal front will be the best area of 
surface convergence. This front will move little during the period. 
With the cold air aloft most of the convection will be afternoon and 
evening due to diurnal heating. Dgex and 06z GFS weaken the ul 
trough at the end of the week...while the Euro deepens it. Leaning 
toward the American models. With these weak surface high and schc probability of precipitation 
Thursday to Sat. 


In general cooler and less humid with afternoon mostly cloudy 
skies and showers. Partly cloudy at night and valley fog. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/... 
best chance for thunderstorms and rain appears to be krme...although isolated coverage of 
thunderstorms and rain vicinity any of the other terminals cannot be ruled out 
especially syr due to increasingly hot...humid and unstable airmass. 
Nocturnal stabilization should Nix any thunderstorms after dark...but 
will have to watch weak frontal boundary sagging into the ksyr-krme 
areas by Sat morning for addl development. Areas of MVFR and IFR 
fog are again expected after 06z mostly at Elm and avp. Boundary 
layer winds are over 20 kts so fog will not be as widespread as 
this morning. Again by 13z fog will burn off with cumulus forming. 


Winds west around 10 kts this afternoon...gusting 15-20 kts taftn. Light 
and variable again tonight. SW at 5 to 10 kts late morning. 




Outlook... 


Sat...VFR. Areas MVFR/IFR with mainly afternoon scattered thunderstorms and rain. 
Sat night...VFR/MVFR. Areas br. Chance shra/tsra. 
Sun...VFR. Areas MVFR/IFR with scattered thunderstorms and rain. 
Sun nite/Monday...MVFR/IFR. Cold frontal passage. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain 
likely. 
Tuesday/Wednesday...VFR. Morning IFR/MVFR fog possible. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...mlj 
short term... 
long term...tac 
aviation...tac