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fxus61 kaly 061120 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
720 am EDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure will control most of our area today. The only 
exception will be areas well south of Albany...still close enough to 
a stationary front...that a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled. 
This high will drift south and begin pumping more humidity and heat 
our way come Monday and Tuesday as well as an increased threat of a 
thunderstorm. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
the synoptic setup for the near term consists of a weakening 
stationary front...lying down around the Mason Dixon line...and weak 
high pressure to the north of Albany. 


Once again had a "rogue" heavy shower...(with a few lightning 
strikes)...in our southern areas. This look like the result of an 
easterly low level moist flow off the Atlantic...upsloping along the 
east facing side of the Catskills. The shower has completely fallen 
apart and radars are quiet. Now we are dealing with "stratus issues" 
as they attempt to come up the Hudson Valley and points east. 


Our thinking is that stratus should not hang around much after 
sunrise as the ducting southerly mechanism is weak and they should 
be thin enough to be burned off by the July sun. 


When it does...it appears that any instability should lie south of 
Albany today again. With no forcing mechanisms and the lack of 
instability...have removed any sensible probability of precipitation from these areas...but 
still will continue to carry slight chances furthers south across 
the southern Catskills/Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. 


Went a point or two on the low side of minced guidance today due to 
the stratus. Obviously if they do no burn off...our numbers will 
still be too high. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/... 
the overall synoptic setup will only slowly change during this time 
frame. Upper level heights will rise...and it now appears that the 
front to our south will wash out...even though an upper level 
low...currently in the Ohio Valley...approaches. The interesting 
thing about this upper low is it has lots of dry air associated with 
it. For this reason...it appears that this feature will not increase 
the threat of showers/storms over our region on its own merit. 


We might repeat the same process of developing stratus/fog on 
tonight but again they should burn off quite quickly after sunrise. 


The remnants of the front...where it lifts...as well as increasing 
dewpoints and temperatures...will increase low level instability. 
Upslope areas (especially east of the Hudson valley) could then 
become the focus for scattered activity to form from differential 
heating come Monday afternoon. Have slight chances most areas except 
low chances to the east. 


By Tuesday...a Bermuda high looks to fully control our weather. H850 
temperatures are warm (not quite as much as previous runs) but still 
toasty at around 17c. We look to start off capped as the GFS moves a 
significant mesoscale convective system well to our north. However...upper air heights 
begin to fall by afternoon as a slug of moisture is poised to cross 
our region. This added moisture along with falling heights might be 
enough to break the cap but this scenario is far from certain. For 
now...have decided to increase probability of precipitation to the 30-40 range for Tuesday 
afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach 90 degrees in most 
valley locations...and well into the 80s most other places. 


A rather uncomfortably muggy night is forecast for Tuesday night 
ahead of the next cold front. Some municipalities might not get 
below 70 degrees. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
models have come into closer agreement that the middle week cold front 
will move through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will forecast low 
chance probability of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...raise the probability of precipitation to 
high chance for Wednesday afternoon and evening...then lower probability of precipitation to 
slight chance by late Wednesday night. One more very warm and humid 
day on Wednesday with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 
80s...and could see some places reach 90 if enough sunshine occurs. 


European model (ecmwf) and GFS both forecast decent cooling behind the cold front for 
the end of the workweek (850 mb temperatures drop to around +10 degree celsius 
in both models during this period). Have forecast highs for Thursday 
in the low 70s to low 80s...and middle 70s to middle 80s on Friday as a 
slight warmup begins. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 40s 
and 50s. 


The warmup becomes more pronounced by Saturday as the surface high 
moves offshore and the upper level ridge builds in. Highs for 
Saturday are forecast to be in the 80s. 


Expect rainfree weather Thursday through Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/... 
a nearly stationary boundary will remain to our south through 
today...before drifting north tonight into Monday. 


Stratus over eastern New York and currently affecting or near the 
kgfl/kalb/kpou terminals...will gradually erode during the morning. 
Through 13z at kgfl/kalb the stratus should erode fairly quickly and 
have only forecast occasional scattered clouds at kalb at 2000 feet until 
then. Broken stratus at 1000 feet will be forecast for kgfl with MVFR 
visibilities as well due to fog. After 13z...VFR conditions at kgfl/kalb 
through early tonight...with MVFR/IFR conditions returning later 
tonight due to fog. 


Stratus deck will be most persistent at kpou due to a deeper layer 
of low level moisture. Expect MVFR ceilings at kpou to linger until middle 
or late morning (14z) before heating turns it into a cumulus deck between 
3500 and 4500 feet. A tempo for MVFR visibility due to fog will also be 
forecast through 13z. Expect mainly VFR conditions after 15z at kpou 
with an increase in widely scattered shower activity this afternoon 
..but have only included vcsh in the taf at this point. 


Surface winds at all three sites will be 7 kts or less through the 
taf period. 


Outlook... 
late Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR...chc shra/tsra...mainly PM and 
evening. 
Thursday...VFR. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
it nows looks as if most of our area will remain dry once again. Any 
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south 
of Albany today and tonight. By Monday afternoon...as more humidity 
and heat is ensued...the threat for scattered storms works across 
the entire region. The same rings true for Tuesday. A cold front 
looks to bring more numerous showers and storms in for later 
Wednesday. 


Relative humidity values will only drop to the 60s south of Albany...50s elsewhere 
except for a few 40s northwest across the southern Adirondacks. Full 
recovery tonight with dew expected in most places. Minimum relative humidity values 
look to be bit higher come Monday afternoon...generally dropping no 
lower 50-60 percent region wide. 


A light south to southeast wind will generally average under 10 miles per hour 
both today and Monday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
once again...no major hydrological issues are expected through this 
time frame. Isolated showers or storms to the south could produce 
extremely localized rainfall amounts of an inch or more...while the 
vast majority of the region might not see any measurable rainfall. 
The same scenario rings true Monday and Tuesday although 
thunderstorm coverage might be a little bit better than today. A 
cold front might bring more numerous showers and storms our way by 
Wednesday. Dry weather looks to return later in the week. 
&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hwjiv 
near term...hwjiv 
short term...hwjiv 
long term...maglaras 
aviation...maglaras 
fire weather...hwjiv 
hydrology...hwjiv 


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