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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
539 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build eastward from the Central Plains tonight. 
A long stretch of dry weather is expected from tonight into the 
early part of the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will average well 
above normal with a decent amounts of sunshine. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday/... 
high pressure extending from the plains to the Great Lakes will keep 
dry air over the region through the period with only some limited 
high clouds drifting southeast across the region tonight especially across 
the north country. Expect lows tonight generally from the upper 20s to 
around 30 across the north country and low to middle 30s across the 
rest of the region. There will also be some upper 20s over some of 
the interior valleys of the southern tier. 


Plenty of sunshine is still expected Wednesday with 850 mb 
temperatures around plus 2c to +3c. This time of year those kind of 
850 mb temperatures shld support highs in the middle to upper 50s in most 
areas with even a few locations getting to 60 across the central 
Genesee Valley. The exception will be the immediate Lake Shores east 
and southeast of lakes Erie and Ontario will likely remain below 50 
as expect SW winds to develop off the east ends of the lakes. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/... 
high pressure and fair weather will continue to be dominate at the 
start of the period. Mainly clear skies Wednesday night will lead to 
good radiational cooling...but most areas will remain above 
freezing...but the normally colder valleys of the southern tier 
and well east of Lake Ontario will see below freezing temperatures. 


A short wave in the northern stream is expected to move southeast 
across northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. 
This will lead to a weak backdoor front dropping down across the 
area...but moisture is very limited as Gulf of Mexico moisture is 
completely cut off due to blocking ridge in place. Therefore... 
just a slight increase in cloud cover is expected. Ridge will re- 
establish in the wake of weak frontal passage...allowing for a 
fair weather day Friday. The ridge slides off the East Coast 
Saturday...allowing a strengthening warm air advection pattern to 
set up. Saturday continues to looks dry with a gradual increase 
in cloudiness in the warm air advection pattern ahead of 
approaching warm front. 


Temperatures Thursday generally in the lower to middle 50s...but the 
flow off the lakes will keep the Buffalo and Watertown areas cooler. 
Friday and Saturday look a bit milder...with Saturday likely the 
warmest of the two days. Highs Friday will generally be in the 
middle 50s to lower 60s with areas downwind of the lakes cooler 
again. Widespread 60s are likely for Saturday with little if any 
lake cooling expected. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
sharp cold front looks to sweep across the area Sunday night...with 
the GFS a bit faster than the European and Canadian. Deep layered 
moisture should be advecting northward along and ahead of the 
boundary. This should support decent convection along the front and 
may eventually warrant the mention of thunder in later forecasts. 
Influx of much colder air in wake of the front may warrant lake 
effect concerns by Monday night into Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
high confidence in VFR conditions through 18z Wednesday. Noted 
that BUFKIT shows some boundary layer moisture between 06z and 12z 
tonight...however surface dew points are much drier than 
forecast...diminishing the potential for radiation fog. 
Otherwise...a high pressure ridge is firmly in control...it is too 
dry aloft to support any clouds outside of periodic high clouds 
above 20k feet. 




Outlook... 
Wednesday through Saturday...VFR. 
Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR showers likely. 


&& 


Marine... 
no marine headlines will be necessary tonight or Wednesday as the 
pressure gradient remains weak across the lower lakes region. 
Southwest winds will be on the increase Wednesday night and 
Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between low 
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the 
Mississippi Valley...but at this time even during that we will 
likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Polar orbiter satellite imagery this afternoon showing a dramatic 
decrease in lake ice on Lake Erie has taken place during the 
course of the last week. Except for the presence of shore ice the 
US portion of the eastern basin is almost completely ice 
free...about a 30-50 percent coverage continues to exist from 
around the Westfield/Ripley area over to Long Point Ontario. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tma 
near term...jjp 
short term...tma 
long term...tma 
aviation...jjp/apffel 
marine...tma