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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
144 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure over the Great Lakes today will slowly drift to the 
East Coast during the next few days. This will provide fine dry 
and sunny weather to western and central New York right on through 
Saturday along with a dramatic warming trend. A cold front will 
cross the region on Sunday with a shower threat...to be followed 
by more high pressure and dry seasonable weather early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
point soundings are very dry in the low/middle levels...so dont 
expect much in the way of cumulus development today. May see a 
little cirrus spill into the north country from midday into the 
afternoon as a weak shortwave digs southeast into New England 
accompanied by a 100+ knot upper level jet. 850mb temperatures rise to 
around +10c west and +8c east by afternoon...and this should 
support highs in the middle 70s west and low 70s east. With strong 
differential heating and light synoptic scale flow the typical 
lake breezes will develop today with flow becoming onshore by 
early afternoon along the lakes. 


Tonight the surface high will crest over the region this evening 
then build to the Atlantic coast by 12z Thursday. Expect clear skies... 
dry airmass...and light winds to again promote strong radiational 
cooling. Airmass will modify a little from this morning...but still 
expect lows down into the low 50s on the lake plains and 40s inland. 
May see a few isolated upper 30s readings again in the coolest 
valleys of the southern tier and up on the Tug Hill. Have again 
added patchy fog into the southern tier...Finger Lakes...and Eastern 
Lake Ontario region with fog forming preferentially near water 
bodies. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/... 
this period will feature some real midsummer heat as a strong 
592dm 500 mb ridge will amplify across the Ohio Valley and eastern 
Great Lakes. The ridge will be centered directly over the forecast 
area Thursday...then will slowly drift to our east Thursday night 
and Friday. 


The surface high will drift far enough east on Thursday to allow 850 mb 
temperatures to climb to 15-16c. This will easily support maximum temperatures in 
the middle 80s for most locations...although with dew points 
remaining in the 50s...the summery heat should be easy to handle. 


The heat will build on Friday with 850 mb temperatures rising to 
17-18c...supporting u80s. Buf record on Friday is only 87 (1877) and 
will be threatened. On the other hand...roc's record is 98 
(1916). 


Dew point temperatures will gradually climb into the upper 50s and lower 
60s Thursday night and Friday as our ridge will slowly move to our 
east. In the meantime...clear skies and light winds will keep our 
stretch of fine late Summer conditions intact. 


The strong ridge should hold into Saturday before a deep closed 
low over the prairies of south central Canada lifts to the 
northeast across the upper lakes and erodes the western edges of 
our controlling 500 mb ridge and will help to set up a stronger 
southwesterly flow across our region. As a result it will be a 
another warm and increasingly humid day Saturday. 850 mb temperatures of 
16c will still support mid to upper 80s. Most of Sat nt will be dry 
too...but an approaching cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms into 
western areas late at night. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
the main player this period will be a cold frontal passage on 
Sunday. This feature appears weaker on latest models but still 
should be able to bring a scattering of showers and thunderstorms 
throughout...so 50 probability of precipitation will be held. 00z GFS a bit faster with its 
departure...clearing out the west in the afternoon but wont get 
that specific yet. Another large high will follow...settling 
across the lakes and giving our region a few more days of fine dry 
weather early next week. 


As for "fay"...all models keep this storm meandering along the 
eastern Gulf Coast right on through the weekend...with its 
moisture certainly not getting picked up by the front Sunday...so 
any of its remnant moisture will not begin its northward trek 
until around the middle of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/... 
VFR conditions will prevail for the next several days. Surface high 
pressure centered over southern Ontario at 18z will continue to build 
slowly southeast and crest over the region through this evening. 
This will provide clear skies and light winds. Some valley fog 
will form again late tonight into Thursday morning...but again 
similar to this morning expect all the taf sites to remain VFR. 


Outlook... 
Thursday through Saturday...VFR. 
Sunday...possible MVFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms. 
Monday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
no flags are expected through at least Friday. 


Surface high pressure cresting over the lower Great Lakes today 
will bring light winds. With the light synoptic scale gradient... 
local lake breezes will develop by early afternoon with winds 
becoming onshore along the nearshores...and light west at Middle 
Lake. The lake breezes will transition to land breezes tonight 
with winds along the shorelines becoming light offshore. 


Fine boating conditions can be expected for the next several days as 
high pressure over the Great Lakes region will gradually settle over 
the Middle Atlantic States. This will resultant weak surface pressure 
gradient will translate into light winds and correspondingly low 
wave heights. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...sfm 
near term...Hitchcock/zaff 
short term...sfm 
long term...sfm 
aviation...zaff 
marine...Hitchcock/sfm