579 
fxus61 kbgm 181954 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
354 PM EDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Synopsis... 
warm and muggy weather will continue through the weekend. The 
proximity of a weak frontal boundary...along with the passage of 
upper-air disturbances...will bring more scattered showers and 
thunderstorms through Sunday...mainly during the afternoon and evening 
hours. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
isolated convection continues to develop late this afternoon...mainly over 
central New York and to the east of the I-81 corridor. Satellite imagery 
and surface observations show a west to east convergence boundary 
across central New York. A few additional showers and storms are 
expected to pop up through the early evening...mostly near and 
south of this boundary. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues 
through 8 PM for some of our northern and eastern 
zones...generally north of a line from Cortland to Norwich to 
Cooperstown. 


Later tonight...things should be quiet as the atmosphere 
stabilizes. Patchy fog will likely form again in some of the twin 
tier river valleys. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/... 
a weak frontal boundary is still expected to drop southward into 
the area Saturday afternoon and night. Diurnal convection should 
focus mostly along and south of this boundary...mainly from the 
twin tiers southward into the Wyoming/Lackawanna valleys and the 
Poconos. A few residual showers may hang on through the overnight 
hours...with the front expected to stall somewhere near the PA/New York 
border. 


Sunday and Sunday night...the above mentioned front should begin 
to lift northward once again...as a surface wave begins to 
strengthen over the Great Lakes region. Once again...diurnal 
convection should focus near this boundary...with the most 
widespread coverage this time across our northern zones. Early 
indications point to the possibility of severe storms later 
Sunday...if enough destabilization can develop...given a nicely 
sheared environment close to the warm front. 


By Monday...a cold front should be slicing across the area from 
west to east. Given timing uncertainties this far out...will 
simply call for a chance of showers and storms area-wide. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
upper level trough over the NE US and southeast Canada deepens as a short 
wave moves slowly east from Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday. At 
the start of the extended a coastal front will be the best area of 
surface convergence. This front will move little during the period. 
With the cold air aloft most of the convection will be afternoon and 
evening due to diurnal heating. Dgex and 06z GFS weaken the ul 
trough at the end of the week...while the Euro deepens it. Leaning 
toward the American models. With these weak surface high and schc probability of precipitation 
Thursday to Sat. 


In general cooler and less humid with afternoon mostly cloudy 
skies and showers. Partly cloudy at night and valley fog. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/... 
best chance for thunderstorms and rain appears to be krme...although isolated coverage of 
thunderstorms and rain vicinity any of the other terminals cannot be ruled out 
especially syr due to increasingly hot...humid and unstable airmass. 
Nocturnal stabilization should Nix any thunderstorms after dark...but 
will have to watch weak frontal boundary sagging into the ksyr-krme 
areas by Sat morning for addl development. Areas of MVFR and IFR 
fog are again expected after 06z mostly at Elm and avp. Boundary 
layer winds are over 20 kts so fog will not be as widespread as 
this morning. Again by 13z fog will burn off with cumulus forming. 


Winds west around 10 kts this afternoon...gusting 15-20 kts taftn. Light 
and variable again tonight. SW at 5 to 10 kts late morning. 




Outlook... 


Sat...VFR. Areas MVFR/IFR with mainly afternoon scattered thunderstorms and rain. 
Sat night...VFR/MVFR. Areas br. Chance shra/tsra. 
Sun...VFR. Areas MVFR/IFR with scattered thunderstorms and rain. 
Sun nite/Monday...MVFR/IFR. Cold frontal passage. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain 
likely. 
Tuesday/Wednesday...VFR. Morning IFR/MVFR fog possible. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mlj 
near term...mlj 
short term...mlj 
long term...tac 
aviation...tac