669 
fxus65 klkn 081044 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
344 am PDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Synopsis...a ridge of high pressure centered near The Four Corners 
area of the country will continue to pump monsoon moisture northward 
into the Silver state through Saturday. Beginning Sunday...a drier 
weather regime is expected through the middle of next week. High 
temperatures will continue to be seasonal through the weekend and 
into early next week. && 


Short term...today through Saturday...thunderstorm activity abated 
around 06z last evening then picked up again around 08z. Still quite 
a few showers north. Band of organized light shower activity 
currently stretches from the Idaho border in northwest Elko County... 
southeastward to the Ruby Mountains. Showers noted at lkn at 03z. 
Strongest reflectivity in in northwest Elko County. Another batch of 
showers that intensified just west of the Santa Rosas in Humboldt 
County earlier has essentially moved north into Oregon at this hour. 
GFS depicted this pattern very well on last nights model run. Upper 
jet now influencing shower persistence in Humboldt County that will 
continue to move east through the morning hours to bring additional 
showers to northern Elko County. 


Short term models are well-synchronized this morning. Water vapor 
imagery shows copious moisture continuing to push northward into 
the southeast County warning forecast area with some dry air intrusion occurring over 
southwest Nevada at this time. Storms will be mostly wet but should see a 
few more dry strikes. Precipitable water values range from 0.5 to 
0.8 inches by late afternoon with the higher values near the Utah 
border. Expect thunderstorms to be focused further east today than on 
Thursday as Pacific upper low begins to act as kicker to nudge 
monsoon flow eastward. Shear increases which could lead to some 
organization in the north. The severe threat would mainly be large 
hail and damaging winds. As the weak jet axis drifts eastward 
by late afternoon...upper low will be threatening to move 
onshore. Pressure gradient will be tightest early Saturday morning. 
Will probably see some breezy winds mixing down over Humboldt County 
late today as embedded short wave passes over northwest Nevada. 


Held onto the notion of another round of thunderstorms mainly east 
of the Ruby Mountains and back along Highway 50 for Saturday as precipitable water 
values lower to around 0.7 inches over extreme eastern Nevada. Very 
dry air mass will begin to move into western Nevada by Saturday 
afternoon. Lw && 


Long term...Saturday night through next Thursday...upper low along 
the b.C./Washington border Saturday evening will help to keep 
monsoon moisture and weak instability over east-central Nevada. Weak 
southwesterly flow over the Great Basin lingers through Monday with 
the continued threat of isolated afternoon and early evening 
thunderstorms across White Pine County. Weaker flow and drier air 
Tuesday and Wednesday will inhibit the threat of thunderstorm 
activity...however should still see some afternoon cloud build-ups 
over and east of the Ruby Mountains. By Thursday another low 
pressure center drops down along the northern California 
coast...which will help draw up moisture over eastern and central 
portions of the County Warning Area as southwesterly flow increases over northern 
and central Nevada. Temperatures should be about 5 degrees above 
normal through the long term period. Rood && 


Aviation...scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across 
the region again today...but should diminish from west to east as 
drier air spreads into the region. Brief gusty winds up to 40 
miles per hour...locally heavy rainfall...and MVFR ceilings/visible are possible at Ely 
and Elko. 
&& 


Fire weather...drier air will slowly move in from the west over the 
next several days. Thunderstorm coverage today will essentially be 
the same as on Thursday...isolated west trending to scattered central 
and east. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday in 
an area mainly east of the Ruby Mountains in zone 452...zone 455... 
and stretching westward along Highway 50 into eastern zone 457. Lw 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$