588 
fxus64 kepz 052121 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
321 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
upper level high pressure will lessen our chances for 
thunderstorms for the next couple of days. By the middle part of 
next week the high will weaken and moisture will begin to return 
to the area...so we will see an increased chance for afternoon and 
evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will run near seasonal normals 
for the first part of the week and then a few degrees below normal 
for the middle and end part of the week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
upper level high pressure is currently elongated east west across 
Arizona and New Mexico. This has given our afternoon and evening 
thunderstorm chances a slight down turn. But with so much moisture 
trapped under the high I certainly can't rule out some isolated 
thunderstorms in both The Lowlands and mountains. I do expect the 
Gila and areas west of the Rio Grande will see scattered chances 
for thunderstorms today and tomorrow with the rest of US Luck to 
get what we can get. On Monday the upper high will break down or 
split which will begin to open the door to increased rain chances. 
Now previous runs of the GFS had a big push of moisture into the 
County Warning Area for the middle and end part of the week...but the current run 
of the GFS has backed off on the amount of moisture...and delayed 
more for the weekend. For now I haven't tried to get to fancy with 
the probability of precipitation and left the scattered probability of precipitation in the forecast for the 
middle part of the week. All the extended models have a classic 
monsoon pattern for US set up for the middle part through the end 
of the week with the upper high centered over the Gulf of Mexico 
so our rain chances will be on the up tick for the end of the week. 


Temperatures through at least Monday will run at or a few degrees 
above normal. But as the high looses its influence on US and we 
see a return of the moisture we will see our afternoon highs dip a 
few degrees below normal for the middle and end part of next week. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 06/00z-07/00z... 
mainly VFR through the period excpt for isolated -shra/-tsra mainly 
west of Rio Grande and in the southern Sacramento Mountains 
06/00z-06/03z and again 06/18z-07/00z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a splitting upper level ridge will gradually allow increased 
moisture into fire weather region over next 48 hours for 
slightly increased chances of afternoon/evening storms. Areas 
west of Rio Grande most favored. Starting late Tuesday through 
the end of next week...a classic monsoonal surface pattern will be 
set up along with the presence of an inverted upper level trough. 
These features will funnel in increasing surface and middle-level 
moisture resulting in a greater coverage of thunderstorms area-wide 
as well as an increased risk of heavy rain with the stronger storms. 


Red flag conditions are not expected through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 71 96 72 95 72 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Sierra Blanca Texas 64 91 66 90 65 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Las Cruces 68 95 69 95 69 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Alamogordo 64 94 66 93 65 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Cloudcroft 49 72 50 71 47 / 20 20 20 30 20 
Truth or Consequences 64 95 66 92 65 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Silver City 60 88 59 85 59 / 20 30 20 30 20 
Deming 65 96 67 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 20 
Lordsburg 66 95 68 95 67 / 20 10 20 20 20 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


15/15