255 
fxus64 kepz 060953 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
353 am MDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
it will be seasonably hot the next 2 or 3 days before a slight 
cooling trend begins by midweek. A ridge of high pressure will 
become established to the east of the area. As a result... 
thunderstorms will become more numerous as the week progresses. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models have finally been consistent with the upcoming scenario... 
building an upper ridge east of the County Warning Area. The existing one 
currently overhead rebuilds to our northwest...with the Desert 
Southwest under a region of trofiness between upper high 
circulations. This should be in place as early as Tuesday and 
certainly by Wednesday. Plume of deep subtropical moisture 
initially stays west over eastern Arizona...then spreads eastward. 
Southeast flow deepens to import sufficient moisture for an active 
thunderstorm period lasting through the weekend. Have increased 
probability of precipitation to scattered coverage Tuesday evening...which is a day 
earlier than previous forecast package. We might escape the 
effects of the first inverted trough sliding by to our south later 
today...but the next one comes too close on Tuesday when moisture 
levels have increased. 


00z runs of GFS and European model (ecmwf) models strengthen and expand southern 
U.S. Upper high westward next weekend...which would push moisture 
plume west over Arizona again...keeping thunderstorms active along and 
west of the Continental Divide but thinning them out over the 
eastern two thirds of our area while increasing temperatures 
somewhat. This is not reflected in the forecast just yet. 
Besides...with the epz senior management team working the evenings 
next weekend...anything less than a major convective outbreak 
would not make sense. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 06/12z-07/12z... mainly VFR through the period excpt 
for isolated -shra/-tsra mainly west of Rio Grande and in the 
southern Sacramento Mountains after 06/18z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a splitting upper level ridge will gradually allow increased 
moisture into fire weather region over next 48 hours for 
slightly increased chances of afternoon/evening storms. Areas 
west of Rio Grande most favored. Starting late Tuesday through 
the end of next week...a classic monsoonal surface pattern will be 
set up along with the presence of an inverted upper level trough. 
These features will funnel in increasing surface and middle-level 
moisture resulting in a greater coverage of thunderstorms area-wide 
as well as an increased risk of heavy rain with the stronger storms. 


Red flag conditions are not expected through the period. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 97 72 96 72 95 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Sierra Blanca Texas 92 66 91 65 91 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Las Cruces 96 69 96 69 95 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Alamogordo 95 66 94 65 94 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Cloudcroft 73 50 72 47 71 / 20 20 30 20 40 
Truth or Consequences 96 66 93 65 92 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Silver City 89 59 86 59 86 / 30 20 30 20 40 
Deming 97 67 96 66 96 / 10 20 20 20 30 
Lordsburg 96 68 96 67 95 / 10 20 20 20 30 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


01/01 fausett