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fxus65 kabq 200906 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
306 am MDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Discussion... 
much of the activity from last night pushed off to the west of the 
County Warning Area as of this writing...however...an isolated storm has formed off 
the manzanos early this morning. Not out of the question that 
another storm or two could develop...but much of the activity will 
hold off until around noon. 


Upper high centered over Colorado will continue to drift eastward 
today before moving into Texas by Tuesday. Storms will continue to 
favor the central and western portions of the state today and 
tomorrow. Storms will generally drift to the west or 
southwest...similarly to yesterday. Could still have some locally 
heavy rain and flooding as precipitable h20 values remain around one 
inch. 


Around middle week...the GFS and NAM want to bring the upper high back 
over nm...however European model (ecmwf) keeps it over Texas. Should the high return 
over nm...convection may be suppressed somewhat...though still 
expect some thunderstorms over the higher terrain at the very 
least. Otherwise...central and western areas will continue to be 
favored for afternoon and evening convection. 


34 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated thunderstorms over the Rio Grande Valley should diminish 
through 12z...but until that time isolated MVFR visibility and ceilings with occasional 
lightning possible in the storms. Expect showers and thunderstorms to 
redevelop again by 18z over the higher terrain then become more 
widespread thereafter...but showers and storms will be least 
numerous over the far eastern sections of the state. Expect local MVFR 
visibility/ceilings in the storms during the afternoon with surface wind gusts to 
around 35kt and occasional mountain obscurations. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper high center will remain over the Colorado through 
today...before spreading back across the state as the week 
progresses. Far eastern New Mexico will be more stable...therefore 
showers and storms will be more active from the Central Mountain 
chain westward today and tonight. Thereafter...as the upper high 
migrates back over the state...wetting rain coverage may decrease a 
bit...but sufficient moisture will be in place to keep wetting 
showers and thunderstorms going over much of northern and central 
New Mexico. 






&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 94 66 90 64 / 20 30 30 30 
Gallup.......................... 85 59 83 57 / 30 50 30 30 
Grants.......................... 84 57 85 57 / 30 30 30 30 
Glenwood........................ 87 62 87 62 / 40 40 30 30 
Chama........................... 81 46 79 45 / 30 40 40 30 
Los Alamos...................... 81 56 83 55 / 20 20 30 30 
Red River....................... 73 41 73 42 / 30 20 40 30 
Taos............................ 84 53 84 52 / 20 20 30 30 
Santa Fe........................ 83 59 84 59 / 20 20 30 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 85 58 87 59 / 20 20 30 20 
Espanola........................ 89 58 89 57 / 20 20 30 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 89 66 89 67 / 20 20 20 30 
Albuquerque valley.............. 90 65 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 86 61 86 62 / 30 30 20 30 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 64 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 
Socorro......................... 90 62 90 62 / 20 20 20 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 53 80 52 / 30 30 30 30 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 55 85 55 / 20 20 30 20 
Carrizozo....................... 88 60 88 60 / 20 20 20 20 
Ruidoso......................... 78 53 80 53 / 20 20 30 20 
Raton........................... 89 55 89 56 / 10 5 10 10 
Las Vegas....................... 82 55 84 55 / 20 10 20 20 
Roy............................. 86 61 89 61 / 5 5 5 5 
Clayton......................... 90 63 92 63 / 5 0 5 5 
Santa Rosa...................... 91 61 94 62 / 5 5 5 5 
Tucumcari....................... 93 65 96 67 / 5 0 5 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 93 65 93 66 / 5 5 5 5 
Clovis.......................... 90 65 93 65 / 5 0 5 5 
Portales........................ 91 66 94 67 / 5 5 5 5 
Roswell......................... 93 68 96 68 / 5 5 5 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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