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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
210 PM MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
latest ruc80 analysis indicates a weak upper level trough moving 
through The Rockies with a neutrally tilted axis along a line from 
western Montana to northern Arizona. Meanwhile...a Lee-side trough developed 
in the eastern plains of nm. Combination of a tight surface pressure 
gradient and stronger winds aloft have allowed for breezy to windy 
conditions across the higher terrain as well as Lee of the central 
mountains. For tonight...expect the trough axis to pass through the 
state. Winds will gradually diminish after sunset...excluding the 
favored mountain peaks and eastern slopes. The brunt of the high clouds 
will also depart the eastern plains early Sunday morning. Temperatures 
will be tricky...but will continue with persistence in the west. It 
appears a weak surface front will clip the NE/ec plains...although 
cold air advection will be lacking. 


West/northwest flow is expected across the land of enchantment on 
Sunday...however the next rapidly approaching system will arrive in 
the central rockies by Sun night. Gfs40/European model (ecmwf) have come into better 
agreement with respect to its track. Both of these models as well as 
the GFS ensembles keep the brunt of the precipitation north of the Colorado border. 
Opted to trim probability of precipitation to the highest of elevations and downgraded the 
wording from snow showers to flurries. No accumulations are expected 
with this system. Of more importance...this system will drive a cold 
front through the state. Afternoon temperatures in the NE/ec plains 
will likely fall during the day on Monday. Lowered temperatures Monday 
night/Tuesday due to an impressive 700-500mb layer of 5-15c/12hr temperature 
advection. 12z mex guidance lowered diurnal temperatures accordingly 
and would not be surprised they come in even lower with future runs. 


For the remainder of the week...New Mexico will be placed between a 
ridge in the west and a deep trough in the central United States. It 
appears another backdoor front will invade the eastern plains during the 
Wednesday time frame. Nonetheless...the region should remain fairly quiet 
with readings bouncing near or slightly above late November normals. 
Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions prevail all airports. No aviation weather hazards for 
the next 24 hours. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. 43 


&& 


Fire weather... 
low pressure trough aloft moving fairly quickly west to east over north 
third of nm late today and resulting lower surface pressure in far 
NE nm will keep some breeziness in place for a few hours into this 
evening mainly across the Central Mountain chain and...in spots...farther 
east as well. Winds will diminish somewhat overnight with loss of 
heating and mixing followed by light to locally moderate winds 
Sunday and lower ventilation rates than today in most areas. 


The next large scale upper trough will push into the central rockies 
Sunday night into Monday...with moderate to strong ridge top winds 
developing over the northern mts. Winds and ventilation will pick up 
somewhat again for Monday...mainly central and southeast sections of 
forecast area. Far NE sections may actually see lower values Monday 
behind a back door cold front. At this time it appears there is 
little chance of any measurable rain/snow across the northern mts/ 
northeast plains. Some improvement in relative humidity recoveries is possible 
though. Maximum temperatures Tuesday will be slightly cooler. As strong high 
pressure ridge builds slowly into the state...the remainder of the 
week should feature clear to partly cloudy skies...dry air...and 
light winds. Ventilation will likely only range in the poor to 
locally fair category starting Tuesday. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 24 52 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 
Dulce........................... 14 48 14 47 / 0 0 0 5 
Cuba............................ 17 49 16 48 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 15 54 16 52 / 0 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 16 51 16 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 11 56 13 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 18 56 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 28 66 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 13 43 11 43 / 0 0 0 5 
Los Alamos...................... 28 50 22 50 / 0 0 0 5 
Pecos........................... 25 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 19 47 14 46 / 0 0 0 5 
Red River....................... 20 39 19 39 / 0 0 5 10 
Angel Fire...................... 21 42 18 42 / 0 0 0 5 
Taos............................ 14 49 12 49 / 0 0 0 5 
Espanola........................ 16 56 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 24 50 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 24 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 28 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 30 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 25 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 27 57 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 22 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 26 58 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 27 62 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 52 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 55 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 26 52 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 29 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 31 63 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 27 57 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 23 52 23 45 / 0 0 0 5 
Raton........................... 21 54 21 51 / 0 0 0 5 
Las Vegas....................... 25 55 25 54 / 0 0 0 5 
Clayton......................... 31 57 29 52 / 0 0 0 5 
Roy............................. 25 57 28 53 / 0 0 0 5 
Conchas......................... 31 63 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 29 65 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 30 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 32 65 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 26 66 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 29 67 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 27 71 29 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 30 69 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 30 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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