447 
fxus65 kabq 072100 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 PM MDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 
sandwiched between and upper high near the Gulf Coast and an upper 
low on the California coast...moisture will continue to work its 
way northward into New Mexico with isolated to at times scattered 
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through much 
of the coming work week. This evenings activity will favor 
southern areas as RUC analysis indicates a couple of weak 
perturbations are pushing northward into our area...one near the 
Southwest Mountains and the other crossing the east slopes of the 
south central mountains. Outflow boundary convergence could even 
increase activity to scattered in the lower and middle Rio Grande 
Valley for a time this evening. 


A back door cold front will dive through the plains on 
Monday...then into the Rio Grande Valley with a 20 to 30 miles per hour east 
wind below canyons Monday night. The front will be a focus for 
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the 
east slopes of the Central Mountain chain Monday afternoon and 
evening. The southern tier of zones will also be favored thanks to 
Richer moisture in that area. 


By Tuesday afternoon...the upper low on the West Coast will begin 
ejecting shortwaves in southwest flow aloft across New 
Mexico...while the back door cold front banks up against the 
Continental Divide. As a result...scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will begin to favor central and western portions of 
the state...while cool air behind the front limits the instability 
to a degree in the east. High temperatures will also drop 5 to 10 
degrees below normal in central and eastern areas on Tuesday. 


Temperatures will begin to rebound a bit Wednesday...especially in 
the east where a surface Lee trough will develop. With southerly 
and southwest flow aloft between the upper level features on the 
Gulf and Pacific coasts...perturbations are likely to cross the 
area and continue to trigger periods of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Medium range models also suggest another back door 
cold front could dive through the east Thursday or so...and this 
may further enhance convection before dropping temperatures. The 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) suggest that the upper low on the California coast 
may begin moving eastward by the weekend and could cross the 
central or southern rockies as a low pressure system or upper 
level trough this coming weekend. 


44 


&& 


Aviation... 
an increase in storm coverage is prognosticated this afternoon/early evening... 
excluding The Four Corners region and the far NE/ec plains. Some of 
these storms may produce brief MVFR conditions...especially within 
heavy rain. Hail/gusty winds are possible from the stronger storms. 
Expect the coverage and intensity to gradually wane after sunset... 
with much of the activity dissipated by midnight. Do not anticipate 
widespread ceilings/fog similar to this morning. By sunrise...expect a 
surface cold front to move into the NE plains. This front will be along 
a lvs to tcc line by 18z. Wind gusts up to 20kts are prognosticated in its 
wake...with slightly more intense storms developing along the front 
by afternoon. The quietest part of nm Monday will be in the far northwest. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. Dporter 


&& 


Fire weather... 
showers and thunderstorms will persist this afternoon and evening... 
especially over the central and southern sections of the state. Dry 
conditions will be focused over The Four Corners area where surface 
dewpoints will crater into the upper teens. A surface boundary will push 
through the eastern plains tomorrow...increasing quantitative precipitation forecast chances. The driest 
part of the state tomorrow will continue to be The Four Corners. The 
boundary will push through the Central Mountain chain Monday night... 
bringing canyon winds to the Rio Grande Valley. This will also allow 
for some relief to the poor humidities across the western half of nm. As 
the middle-week approaches...southwest flow aloft will promote moisture 
to advect northward from Mexico. The coverage of storms will be more 
numerous in central/western nm during this period. The focus for storms 
may shift to eastern nm late in the week as an upper low develops over the 
Great Basin. There is large spread in the strength and track of this 
upper level feature in the longer range models. 


Dporter 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 50 87 55 82 / 0 0 5 20 
Gallup.......................... 44 84 48 78 / 10 10 10 30 
Grants.......................... 44 83 48 77 / 20 10 10 20 
Glenwood........................ 53 88 56 84 / 30 20 20 30 
Chama........................... 36 74 41 69 / 10 10 10 30 
Los Alamos...................... 50 78 49 73 / 10 30 20 20 
Red River....................... 36 69 38 63 / 10 20 20 30 
Taos............................ 43 77 44 72 / 10 10 20 20 
Santa Fe........................ 51 79 51 74 / 20 20 20 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 52 81 53 76 / 20 20 20 20 
Espanola........................ 49 83 51 76 / 10 20 20 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 62 85 61 79 / 30 10 20 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 56 87 58 79 / 30 10 20 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 59 83 57 79 / 30 20 20 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 87 58 83 / 30 10 20 20 
Socorro......................... 57 86 56 79 / 30 10 20 30 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 80 48 73 / 30 20 20 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 80 51 74 / 20 20 20 20 
Carrizozo....................... 58 84 54 78 / 30 20 30 20 
Ruidoso......................... 52 74 50 69 / 40 20 30 20 
Raton........................... 49 69 44 74 / 10 20 20 10 
Las Vegas....................... 48 74 45 71 / 20 30 30 20 
Roy............................. 54 71 51 69 / 10 20 20 10 
Clayton......................... 56 63 47 76 / 10 10 10 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 57 81 52 77 / 20 20 20 20 
Tucumcari....................... 61 78 53 78 / 10 20 20 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 59 83 56 78 / 10 20 20 20 
Clovis.......................... 59 80 54 76 / 10 20 20 20 
Portales........................ 62 81 55 78 / 10 20 30 20 
Roswell......................... 63 87 61 79 / 30 20 30 30 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


44/46